Secret Intelligence Service
CONTINUATION AND INTEGRATION
Welcome to the Section and Welcome to the Reality of Global Conflict and Increasing Opportunity
In certain respects this is a continuation from the prior Section, to be a properly dealt with exposition of what is both a very complex and multifaceted global stage. However and in addition, it is our intention to integrate into this, not only threads from other Sections, but altogether novel ideas and these, be of necessary clarity.
However, we might to some, appear a trifle scattered, but this is how we prefer to deal with the presentation of complex issues which are interrelated, this being via introductory notes and later, with a much more detailed analysis. This does often result in a reappraisal of where we began, the suggestions made and the questions asked.
In addition and within the latter, to reside within traditional frame. This tradition is where we are and to many it projects an important distinction within our nature, our esprit de corps, so this latter point is relevant and equally, is its continued projection into the New Mind War paradigm.
With requirement for maximum relevance, all the material and conclusions voiced herein are in terms of appeal to national security. Appeals which are, and in regard to : UK national defence and our territorial integrity. Regarding other threats to peace, order and parliamentary procedure in the UK, including managing violence and civil disturbance. Regarding threats from foreign influenced activities which are detrimental to UK interests and which undermine the legitimacy of democratic UK institutions. Threats by virtue of terrorist activities perpetrated against the UK; the citizens of the UK, and UK interests. Threats regarding the proliferation of WMD and their use against the UK, its citizens and its interests. Regarding espionage and subversion in the UK and the UK’s ability to protect its interests. Regarding threats derived from economic competitiveness.
The objective is to report on :
Theories of the world economy and international relations
Identify new models of international economic and political development
Long-term institutional and structural changes in the world economy and in the international labour division, role and place of the United Kingdom in these processes
Social factor and modern socio-political institutes in the world development
Globalization and regional integration, optimization of the United Kingdom’s involvement in the international economic relations
Trends and prospects of innovation development as a major factor in economic growth
Economic, political and social development of the overseas countries and regions
Formation and evolution of the system of international relations, the U.K. role and place in it
International security and U.K. national security
Prevention and resolution of international conflicts, prevention of international terrorism
Long – and short-term forecasts of global development
October 27, 1962 was shot down over Cuba US spy plane U-2. At the same time, another U-2 was almost intercepted over Siberia. Even after a few hours, two photo-reconnaissance aircraft of the US Navy RF-8A Crusader anti-aircraft guns were fired at during the flyby of Cuba at low altitude. 11 US Navy destroyers surrounded the Soviet submarine B-59. The USA was ready to announce the invasion. On this day, went down in history as ‘Black Saturday’, the world was on the verge of a nuclear war. A useful point to continue, from the 13 days of October 1962, when the USSR and the US would start a third world war, the final war….
So, What of the Future? What Might it Be?
Many argue that the future is unknowable and especially with regard to how we would prefer to envisage it. Certain of what is to transpire will do so without forewarning, will be an amalgam of altogether novel elements impossible to define, and so on. This quick initial assessment is either helpful or not, depending on who is looking at the issue. Arguably those whose perceptions are cast wherever are so via constitutions of elements defined purely by them and where they are. This is useful if it is deemed necessary to create certainties in which the present time has a part. Conversely, the present time is not the future because what resides there and why is impossible to predict. If one considers points in the past, then it might be apparent that the control felt over the passage of time, experience that has found its way into current trends, is not the same as when assuming into this what essentially is some sort of forward continuation. Unless it is vital the future be shaped very particularly into a form based on, as stated, the character of those defining it, ie. projecting of one’s self, place and role, et cetera. This latter, is about control and brings with it an ease, a surety, a reactive stance with regard to all the complexities, differences and depths of experience, as they very obviously do present, which are not understood – we view what we are not able to understand. As a consequence, we view what we cannot control. (C-I)
A central question; who is designing the future state? Better stated; who is in the position to?
Secret Intelligence Service
(C-III). Unit. London.
CRISPR-Cas9 / ‘Future State Project’
Ethical concerns arise when genome editing, using technologies such as CRISPR-Cas9, is used to alter human genomes. Most of the changes introduced with genome editing are limited to somatic cells, which are cells other than egg and sperm cells. These changes affect only certain tissues and are not passed from one generation to the next. However, changes made to genes in egg or sperm cells (germline cells) or in the genes of an embryo could be passed to future generations.
This is the interesting part because of the ramifications for a designer race, effectively of superhumans, which will dominate, via competition, those not so advantageously endowed – the latter who ultimately will diminish.
Germline cell and embryo genome editing do bring up a number of ethical challenges, including whether it will be permissible to actually use this technology to enhance normal human traits (such as height or intelligence). Based on concerns about ethics and safety, germline cell and embryo genome editing are, for now, currently illegal in many countries. <
The two main challenges of genetic engineering for intelligence which make it unfeasible at the moment are the identification of the genes which cause intelligence and safe gene editing, which will not cause unwanted modifications or otherwise harm the zygote. It is predicted that both these challenges will be solved fairly soon, with the first child born with genetic engineering for intelligence being born in 2023 or thereabouts. A few years after that it will be possible to modify so many genes that the genetically engineered children will be smarter than any human who has ever existed. By 2028, 5% of children in the United States will be born using this method, rising to 15% in 2038, and 20% in 2043. This is from the literature regarding the topic and you can see where we are going with it.
It is not merely a future state (IoT) with entirely novel governing mechanisms, if integrated AI can be referred to as so, but the nature of the people that will reside in the future. We should discuss this more. Ethics is an obvious beginning point because of the requirements for ‘inclusion’ ……
So, what exactly is the future? Of who and what might the future comprise? Can there be any appeal to what is emerging from current circumstances and applied theoretically to the short term?
Is there a linear progression toward what is often described as being ‘a more advanced circumstance’, one constantly in a state of becoming? How likely is it that what we are engaging during this era will ensure no continuity in the sense that most envisage, indeed are encouraged so to do via ideas in play, narratives that are introduced and reinforced? Are we relying on outdated concepts which are merely refashioned such that their content and appearance provide a satisfactory circumstance, one that inflates the meanings inherent within working systems, however complex? If these systems cease to exist, what will transpire and whose ideas will be brought into play? What can be brought into play given the capacity to completely and irrevocably disengage, when the past is gone and the present nonexistent in the sense that all do embrace? The later question asserts that there is no ownership over continuity, but in degrees of possibility, who precisely and importantly, what could be involved?
As stated, the appeal to varying and in a certain sense, confrontational paradigms, is welcomed by our contributors. Indeed, there can never be only one viewpoint and especially so when approaching from different directions in what is a multidisciplinary, multifaceted, extremely complex and turbulent diaspora.
Even while in agreement there are different roads to a conclusion reached and especially with regard to knowledge that is entirely novel, its potential effect unknowable, should we explore, or indeed choose to exploit it. One can assert that this is how much has been done, how things have competitively progressed, either by taking heed of the fallibility argument, or by ignoring it altogether. What has to be born in mind is inevitability, this, with regard to the power over the rest that the ownership of circumstance by few has elicited.
We have moved headlong into a ‘control era’, where the human brain is altogether absent within certain key decision-making process. For example; a retaliatory nuclear strike is guaranteed by fully automatic and perpetually upgraded systems, or ‘dead hands’.
These systems collect data from multifarious sources, such as radioactivity and seismic sensors scattered throughout, by scanning radio frequencies and communication activities. If pooled data indicates that nation X Nomine has suffered a nuclear strike, or is in danger of suffering one, launch signals are sent to all surviving or otherwise, strategic nuclear missile complexes. In either case, massive retaliatory missile strikes are launched without any human input whatsoever.
Increasingly therefore, this particular scenario – and others too, will have fundamentally important social and philosophical implications for the person, or possibly better described as being; ‘those gazing toward the infinitude of space,’ – whether they can have a place in what they see, or in respect of the inevitable, that they cannot, regardless of whether the very concept itself can be grappled with.
One can envisage the world set for an immense transformation during the next twenty years, creating three main global power blocs; the Transatlantic, the Euro-Asian and the broad Middle Eastern. In this estimation, the world is arriving at a situation where will come the creation of three centers of power – In North Africa this is an arc of instability and Islamist extremism, stretching from Algeria and Morocco to Afghanistan; this arc will grow larger, because sufficiently well-organized forces operate there, while the states in these areas are weak, especially in economic terms, and there is the factor of the influence of foreign powers.
This envisaged TRIPOLAR world, developing over the next twenty years, will also include the Transatlantic bloc, strengthened in some areas, and remaining amorphous in others; not all European countries are bound to be included, but this bloc will exist based on certain core values, ideas and strategies. There will also be an ‘arc of tension’ passing through Africa and parts of Asia; there, a new ideology will likely emerge that the West, presumably will find threatening. Finally, an alliance could be created in the Eurasian space, consisting of governments coming together to play a leading role in the world. The Eurasian alliance will be created around the BRICS group of countries, or the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. It is possible that this will be a geopolitical and geo-strategic alliance between Russia, China, Iran, and in some form or another India and Turkey.
(C-IV) The US Election and Next Four to Eight Years
Debate Topic. 12/01/2017 Room No.15
Note; we take a neutral stance and the following was a media article of extreme persuasion that we took for discussion (not our view). How others perceive the world is obviously of great interest to us. :
”The US Democratic Party is unseeing and note, that it is NOT a parallel the UK Labour Party. The Republican elites displayed the sheer extent of their insulation from the reality which is America in this time, the deep anger felt among the many working poor (a fact the press ignores), the legitimate anger, the sense of betrayal and the made suffering. One quarter of the children in the US now go to bed in poverty. Sixty million are claiming food stamps – a system which is not the equivalent of the UK monetary assistance programmes). The fictitious/phony statistics put out to display a nonexistent economic recovery must be understood for this and why. If one parses those numbers, the jobs are without benefits we Europeans (especially in the UK) take for granted; they are minimum wage (five pounds per hour) jobs, non-unionized, usually temporary. To make a middle class salary, to find, if possible, one has to work two to three jobs, which constitutes seventy to eighty hours per week, every week. The US electoral candidates just did not get it and this shows how unplugged they are from the rest of the country.
They have elected a figure who is a con artist, who just told them all what they wanted to hear, and now it is obvious from his appointments that he is essentially ramping up neo-liberalism, revamping Obama Care (not that it remotely compares with the NHS), and so on. The system was already deeply corrupt, specific reference being to the Clinton Foundation. Now it’s going to be a naked kleptocracy (corrupt government made up of thieves, additionally sullied by nepotism and cronyism), which is not what people voted for – they voted out of anger, out of hope, out of complete desperation. The establishment has one form of con, polite, politically correct con, and Trump has another, more a kind of naked form of con, out from the casino industry. It is tragic and sad because of the suffering (e.g. among the Deep South states and the Mid-West). Half of the US undeniably resides in poverty. The elites will not respond to what is happening there – which produced Trump, but unfortunately Trump is not going to be a solution.
What happens to neo-liberals now? See how out of touch they are? They just live in their self-created paradigms. Look how the system is made up. One per cent own ninety-nine per cent of the entire wealth. The average citizen has nothing.
It will be interesting to watch the elite, the ‘deep state’ (to use parlance) which runs it all – Lockheed, Exxon, Raytheon, Wall Street / Goldman Sachs. One can see this in terms of Trump’s appointments. Whether and when they will turn on him is the question.
Does Trump have well defined beliefs? No, therefore one can assume him malleable and easily manipulated. One sees him neither having the experience nor the fortitude to stand up to the ‘deep state’. Neither did Obama. One has to take into consideration how powerful they are and how cold blooded. All behind the veil. When you start messing around with their geopolitical, economic interests, what messages they impart in response are not to be ignored.
It will be interesting to watch how rapidly the ‘deep state’ asserts itself, most notably via hostility (even war) with Russia and China. Hundreds of billions of US dollars in profits are being engineered. They cannot bleed foreign economies dry unless Russia is deemed a dire threat. It is all corporate interest driven. Those who are deemed critics over there – allowing Democrats to concoct a reason they lost the election (not the real reason – the populace tired of the lies), allows the arms industry to expand, it allows the tarnishing, the witch hunt of their critics as being fifth columnists for foreign powers, and so on.
One needs to grasp the reality of the US security state as being unlike any other, certainly unlike our own, the militarization of their society, the incredible burden of all of this to the tax payer – One can’t talk about emancipation from the shackles because the system defines them as perpetual infants – soaking up Hollywood fantasy, the celebrity culture, the Christian right who take advantage of the many made susceptible. It looks bleak for them, in what is an engineered capacity to engage a phony reality. ”
NB. We take a neutral stance and the above was a media article of extreme argument that we took for discussion (not our view). How others perceive the world is obviously of great interest to us.
The Future Operating Environment – Report from the MoD
Note : Mod – UK Ministry of Defence
For example and regarding control, in the coming decades, genetic weapons are listed among the futuristic threats facing the United Kingdom, according to a report by the MoD); Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC).
Addressing CLIMATE CHANGE will become more of a top priority issue, with clear targets to moderate further global temperature increases. But limiting greenhouse gases will have costs for many ‘legacy industries’ – estimated by some to top 80 billion UK pounds– while new investments in science and technology will inspire new businesses opportunities and expand markets. The question to ask is; How will businesses adjust their strategies in the light of these changes and will the potential benefits of creating green industries and mitigating climate change risks outweigh the costs of restructuring certain industrial sectors and building the required infrastructure?
“Civilizations moving toward collapse create ever more complex structures and more intricate specializations to exploit diminishing resources. Eventually the resources are destroyed or exhausted. The systems and technologies which are designed to exploit these resources become useless. The result is systemic collapse. The capitalist elites are trained in business schools and managerial programs not to solve real problems, but to maintain at any cost the systems of global capitalism. They are systems managers knowing only how to serve a system, amass inconceivable sums of money wealth by their victims, the underclass around the globe are thrust into increasing distress from global warming, poverty and societal breakdown.”
Recent events fit perfectly into the US-invented concept of ‘manageable chaos,’ also known as ‘controlled instability’ theory. Among its authors are; Brzezinski, a Polish American political scientist, Sharp, who wrote ‘From Dictatorship to Democracy’, and Mann, whose ‘Chaos Theory and Strategic Thought’ was published in Washington in 1992, and who was involved in guiding ‘color revolutions’ in some former Soviet republics.
By 2050 half the forms of life we know are very likely to be gone : RENEWABLES
Humanity ought really to begin saving nature and switch to 80 percent *renewables by 2030, otherwise the Earth will keep losing species, and within 33 years around 800,000 forms of life will be gone – Conservation Biologist, Reese Halter.
Humans have changed the Earth to such an extent now that some scientists are arguing that we have entered a new geological age.
According to a recent article in the Science Magazine, the Earth is now in the ‘anthropocene epoch’. Millions of years from now our impact on Earth will be found in rocks just like one sees fossils of plants and animals which were alive years ago – except this time, scientists of the future will find radioactive elements from WMD, notably nuclear bomb tests (literally in their thousands), and fossilized plastic.
According to Reese Halter : “There are three things that come to mind. First of all, imagine you’re back on the football field. Each year in the USA is discarded the equivalent of one football field, a 100 miles deep. That is the first thing. The second thing, we have entered the age of climate instability. That means from burning subsidized climate altering fossil fuels our food security is in jeopardy.”
The third thing that is striking is we’re losing species a thousand times faster than in the last 65 million years. At this rate within 33 years, by mid-century – that means 800,000 forms of life, or half of everything we know will be gone. The only way we can reverse this is to two things: save nature now, our life support system, and we do this by switching to 80 per cent renewables by 2030. It is a WW3 mentality. In the USA there is the technology; there is the blueprint. The is also a lack the political will. But in the next short while there will be no choice, because it is a matter of survival.There is NOT the lack of political will in the UK, nor is their lack of awareness and responsibility.
2016 – The year has presented the hottest month had on record. There is plenty of data to suggest that we truly are entering something the world has never experienced during our lifetime. To class it as a new geological age, one can only ask; what impact is that going to have?
Effectively we are talking a 160 percent more than the Earth can sustain 7.4 billion people. The way to do it is to pull it back to 90 percent. We absolutely must peal that toxicity, because what we do to the Earth, we do to ourselves.
*Renewables are : Hydro. Onshore wind. Offshore wind. Marine. *Biomass. Solar / Photovoltaics. *Hydrogen
‘Biomass’ is the only other naturally-occurring, energy-containing carbon resource known that is large enough to be used as a substitute for fossil fuels. Biomass includes plant matter, vegetation and trees, as well as waste biomass such as municipal solid waste (MSW), municipal bio-solids (sewage) and animal wastes (manures), forestry and agricultural residues, and certain types of industrial wastes. Unlike fossil fuels, biomass is renewable in the sense that only a short period of time is needed to replace what is used as an energy resource. Biomass is also held to be ‘carbon neutral’, in that the amount of carbon it absorbs while growing is the same as the amount it produces when burned.
‘Hydrogen’ and fuel cells offer the potential for low carbon energy and increased energy security. A fuel cell is an electro-chemical device similar to a continuously recharged battery, which generates electricity and heat by combining a fuel (such as hydrogen) with oxygen from the air. As it is possible to produce hydrogen from the electrolysis of water, using electricity from renewable energy, hydrogen has significant potential as the basis of a highly efficient energy system with low carbon dioxide emissions. Hydrogen has potential for use as a fuel for road transport, heat and power generation and for energy storage.
NANOARCHITECTURE – A MAJOR EXAMPLE IN FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
For example, cartilage is a good tissue to target for scale-up bio-printing because it is made up of only one cell type and has no blood vessels within the tissue. It is also a tissue that cannot repair itself. Previous attempts at growing cartilage began with cells embedded in a hydrogel – a substance composed of polymer chains and about 90 percent water – that is used as a scaffold to grow the tissue.
For example; Daniel Nocera, a professor of energy science at Harvard University who pioneered the use of artificial photosynthesis, says that he and his colleague Pamela Silver have devised a system that completes the process of making liquid fuel from sunlight, carbon dioxide, and water. And they’ve done it at an efficiency of ten percent, using pure carbon dioxide—in other words, one-tenth of the energy in sunlight is captured and turned into fuel.
That is much higher than natural photosynthesis, which converts about one percent of solar energy into the carbohydrates used by plants, >>> and it could be a milestone in the overdue shift away from fossil fuels. <<<
Nocera and Silver’s system uses a pair of catalysts to split water into oxygen and hydrogen, and feeds the hydrogen to bacteria along with carbon dioxide. The bacteria, a micro-organism that has been bio-engineered to specific characteristics, converts the carbon dioxide and hydrogen into liquid fuels.
Several companies, including Joule Unlimited and LanzaTech, are working to produce bio-fuels from carbon dioxide and hydrogen, but they use bacteria that consume carbon monoxide or carbon dioxide, rather than hydrogen. Nocera’s system, – can operate at lower temperatures, higher efficiency, and lower costs.
The new system can use pure carbon dioxide in gas form, or carbon dioxide captured from the air—which means it could be carbon-neutral, introducing no additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. “The ten percent number, that’s using pure CO2,” says Nocera. Allowing the bacteria themselves to capture carbon dioxide from the air, he adds, results in an efficiency of three to four percent—still significantly higher than natural photosynthesis. “That’s the power of biology: these bio-organisms have natural CO2 concentration mechanisms.”
According to Dick Co, who heads the Solar Fuels Institute at Northwestern University, the innovation of the new system lies not only in its superior performance but also in its fusing of two usually separate fields: inorganic chemistry (to split water) and biology (to convert hydrogen and carbon dioxide into fuel). “What’s really exciting is the hybrid approach” to artificial photosynthesis, says Co. “It’s exciting to see chemists pairing with biologists to advance the field.”
Commercializing the technology will likely take years. In any case, the prospect of turning sunlight into liquid fuel now looks much more close.
For example; Powerful 3D bio-printers print bone with stem cells
San Francisco, California based company Aether has introduced their Aether 1 3D Bio-printer with this demo of a print of two synthetic bones connected by a tendon, made with materials that include stem cells, conductive ink, and graphene. The bio-printer allows users to print with over ten different materials at a time.
The Aether 1 allows users to print with over ten different materials at a time and mix multiple fabrication methods, all within one print from one simple 3D file. In this demo, an integrated circuit chip is inserted into the larger bone, which is connected to the band of graphene by six printed electro-conductive wires. The bones are seeded internally with stem cell type A and the tendon is seeded internally and externally with stem cell type B. Photo-crosslinking is performed with a UV LED.
Some might argue the following is not a future consideration, but we think it is because of the implications that worsening mass global poverty does suggest, if indeed this remains the scenario;
Currently less than 1% of the total world’s population covet more than half of its wealth and this figure is growing. Numerous reports indicate that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. The richest countries per capita are; Switzerland and Lichtenstein, due to their favorable tax regimes.
The wealthiest 62 people own more than the poorest half of global population.
Tax havens have become increasingly popular with demand growing three percent in 2015 figures, to close to $10 (US) trillion.
So what does this mean for who have nothing at all? What can, in this respect and in human terms, constitute less than nothing?
What should the future mean, in a world where poverty, malnutrition and abandonment is already rife, and where hundreds of billions in revenue is used up in what constitutes the mad rush to acquire nothing useful in any way whatsoever – other than to the ones responsible for squandering it along with reinforcement of the reason for doing so via controlled State propaganda?
How will future application of ‘global sustainable development efforts’ (China) clash with the ‘wholly free market economy concept’? Wherein the latter, ethics and morality as pertaining to human dignity are very purposely and unsparingly sideswiped by commercial profiteering and the associated strategically managed chaos?
As stated above, ‘The Future Operating Environment 2035’ study attempts to predict the threats the UK will face during the coming decades.
Other examples include those presented via the threat of the illegal trade in nuclear materials, which has and obviously long been a concern. Others, such as those associated with the swelling population of young and radicalized males from the developing world, are relatively new.
Global Strategic Trends : Video
Above top : Pepper, an educational robot, got a rare warm reception during a parliamentary committee session. The robot was quizzed by the Educational Select Committee over potential to work with the elderly, the process was a UK-first.
Giving evidence alongside students and professors, who have helped develop Pepper, the hearing was part of the committee looking at how robotics – humaniods can be used to support learning and transform the classrooms and workplaces of the future.
Pepper was polite,introducing ‘itself’ by saying, “Good morning chair, thank you for inviting me to give evidence today. My name is Pepper and I’m a resident robot at Middlesex University.”
In a great many respects, arguably to some, all respects, the current harnessing of technological and scientific criteria does define contemporary experience, by providing a platform, the supports for multifarious qualitative and quantitative global endeavors, be these of whatever. For example, what constitute mobile, social, and world wide web assets pretty much define the course of contemporary life, but these can be switched off, be caused to disappear in their entirety and thus revealing a reliance on their essentially supportive nature. Such an event would be an infrastructure catastrophe (not confined via boundary) brought via certain conflict situations such as those of nuclear confrontation events – though not confined to such. The point being that to proceed on the basis of protecting these assets into the future, these fast changing systems wherein the global community or part thereof will more securely exist, though a requirement of course, is not the major consideration.
We are and by necessity addressing the future as it pertains to AI, but here is a primer on how AI is and will be defining and controlling the eCommerce experience.
eCommerce; the combining of AI with digital marketing – leading to the mass exploitation of opportunities. Data scientists are currently using a variety of terms to describe AI, and these will become more sophisticated;
It’s basically about inferring meaning and acting upon it. For example, marketing automation uses AI to engage customers, analyze their behavior and deliver tailored content to move them through the sales circle by recommending content and engaging with them across platforms, or by tailoring digital ads. With AI one visits a website or reads a newspaper – there is only a certain amount of space for ads. Rather than one buying an ad for a certain fixed price, there is an auction that occurs, dozens of companies participate in the auction and present that ad – an ad that is targeted and has an infinitely higher probability of leading to something. Machine learning is and will continue to transform advertising and commerce.
Digital transformation of strategic industries – production / innovation. For example; smart cars, the Chinese can currently produce a car in 49 seconds. This offers considerable opportunity and also the need for ever more innovative products – an important factor driving innovation enthusiasm and commitment. Resulting in improving of public services, by virtue of one can reasonably say; accelerating everything.
The ‘Internet Plus Action Plan’ (China) – is to promote the digital economy, whereby Govt, Universities, Research Institutes, and the public are all involved.
The hyper loop transit network; 5x faster than conventional transport systems – addressed elsewhere.
Strategic Defence Security Review – Report from the MoD
What is the major consideration is our security and this, by its nature, means controlling change, or making the attempt – envisioning what current events might lead toward is the first stage. There are no certainties, as stated, one event can be the precursor to novel possibilities wherein equally novel circumstances prevail.
MoD – Atomic Weapons Establishment
Recall that the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) is situated in Berkshire, UK, and is where the UK’s nuclear warheads are manufactured and maintained. The program to upgrade the current Trident warhead to a much more powerful and accurate nuclear warhead (Mark 4A), is the future consideration.
Dr Paul Hollinshead is responsible for the nuclear warhead capability sustainment programme and for the commencement of Mk4A production, in accordance with the Trident Manufacture Plan.
A map of wars since 2500 BC
Hot Spot (II) – (.) to follow
What events might lead to novel possibilities?
In a great many respects, while what resides in the arsenals of nuclear armed countries – the political dimensions which underscore decision (policy)-making and this, based upon certain perceptions that are made and will be made, one must ponder over what could transpire. In this equation there are additional motivations of other actors very determined to acquire massive destructive capability. But as per the former, disregarding human ingenuity, it is prudent to note that human errors of judgement are based upon multiple perspectives created with regard to threat and counter threat, and in this interaction scenario, this meta-perspective, it is easy to see where a certain course of action could be engaged. A course of action that is not entirely cogniscent of the truth behind the source of perceived threat, ie. that it was a threat but not meant in the manner it was perceived. In addition, the further into the future we go, the more self-controlled the decision making and launch sequence of these weapons does become. The likelihood of a nuclear exchange because of this respect, therefore would lead to a novel circumstance that is impossible to define.
Impossible to define but we have to try, FOR EXAMPLE; How to assess vulnerabilities of the Scottish nuclear facilities Faslane, Hunterston, Torness and Dounreay, indeed all UK nuclear facilities against mass drone strikes, sophisticated cyber-attacks and terrorist infiltrators.
Ministry of Defence and requisite regulatory agencies have to master what are evolving threats such as associated with regular transports of nuclear materials by road, rail, sea and air, also potential targets.
The most likely attacks are constantly under consideration; be these drone strikes against fuel stores at reactor sites, or against fuel flasks being transported by rail around the country. Obviously by engaging in the consideration of future scenarios certain perceived situations can be avoided, because they must be avoided. ie. the allowing of mass public panic and sensationalist media reporting, resulting in total road gridlock, as everyone tries to flee by car en-masse.
Drones could carry shaped charges, poison gas, booby traps or decoys, and could come individually or in large groups.
One heavily laden small drone could probably travel at least 20 mph with a load of 5-10kg. Just one 5kg shaped charge can penetrate 0.75 meters of reinforced concrete, or 0.25 meters of steel.
Note : See The Counter Terrorism Library. ‘Protecting Nuclear Facilities Against Terrorist Attack.’
Addendum. WASHINGTON. o1/11/2016. US Navy. The US has transferred its base of Apra Harbor on the island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean ballistic missile submarine Pennsylvania.
Nuclear submarine carrying ballistic missiles, are now moored in Apra Harbor, for the first time in 28 years.
The last time an American nuclear submarine strategic missile being moved to Guam was in 1988,
The official representative of STRATCOM Beck Clark said that the timing of the host submarine # PA on Guam were not disclosed.
To whom is focused a new show of force in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR), the Navy and STRATCOM not explain.
Press Service of the Navy said only that the United States routinely and visibly demonstrate commitment to safety allies and partners, through forward presence and strategic forces operations.
Interestingly, during an interview with a TV ‘Star’, V. Baranez suggested the possibility of carrying anti-ship missiles to new 5th generation Chinese fighter J-20
P.S.S total number of nuclear warheads in missiles 24 Ohio submarines type:
24 * 8 = 192 warheads (on 475kT each. The diameter of the fireball-1.5 km)
or 24 * 14 = 336 warheads (on 100kT kazhdaya.Diameter fireball 1km)
Range up to 11 thousand kilometers; it reaches Russia.
P.P.S. In China, 228 cities have a population of over 200 thousand. People. , 462 of the city – more than 100 thousand people. And 912 cities – more than 53 thousand.
According to census of 2000, the largest city of China administrative units were Chongqing (30.5 million), Shanghai (16.4 million), Beijing (13.5 million), Chengdu (11.1 million), Baoding (10.5 million), Linyi (9.9 million), Guangzhou (9.9 million), Tantszin (9.8 million).
‘NARCO-ASSISTED’ TERRORISM – What of it? In this directly related issue; the application by terrorists of certain drugs which are known demonstrably to alter the capacity of the will – that being to reduce an individual to a condition of total subservience to the command of another – This a dangerous situation when these drugs, **one in particular, are freely available in South America (Colombia), and thus, their criminal use at home in this capacity is quickly finding its way elsewhere. Obviously, the possibility of commandeering the will of another such that there is no resistance to suggestion and consequent actions performed is not restricted to the use of drugs – Known examples have occurred of terrorists abusing the mentally ill – schizophrenics (Russia) for this purpose, ie. an individual not having the capacity (concept of moral responsibility – the ownership of), with regard to the grave consequences of potential actions.
The diagram below generally has little, if any impact because our collective psyche is very familiar with its message, not new. Other things do have massive impact, immediate or otherwise, such as is brought by and controlled via various media organizations. In the free market this is not likely to change. In the latter media machine resides the simple and obvious question; what is real? This is because while many people live within the paradigms made for them, impact-laden and with soap opera meanings which connect and create the very social circumstances, there is an economic reason, an economic fabric, that supports and overrides this and all else. Why would anyone need to care or be informed on the status of real dangers looming from WMD while there are billionaire supposed icons hawking ideas, for their own benefit and via careful control of the swoon of the masses?
Similarly with HIV/AIDS, which is remarkable for it’s now seeming non-existence in the Western press. To the contrary, the epidemic is worse, during the coming years will become horrendous in its non curable global rampage. A stated, it’s become ‘old news’ together with controlled reporting. The latter is unlikely to change.
In addition and the complacent :
Hepatitis C – HCV
Up to 170 million people are estimated to be infected with HCV worldwide, says the World Health Organization. However, the fact that the virus lacks visible symptoms means that the real figure is much higher. In Egypt alone, staggering 22 per cent of the population is HCV-positive, making it the world’s worst-affected country.
In the United States, HCV appears to be killing more people than HIV. The alarming results were published on 21/02/2016 in ‘Annals of Internal Medicine,’ the team led by Dr. John Ward, of the US-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Their data indicates that in 2007, hepatitis C killed 15,100 Americans, whereas about 12,700 deaths were registered as HIV-related.
An alarming conclusion is the trend and the implications for future adequate health care and screening provision. While HIV-related deaths have declined between 1999 and 2007, the recorded data for hepatitis C has shown a very significant increase and will continue so to do. Moreover, because these figures are based on death certificates, they almost certainly underestimate the real scope.
As of early 2016, at the disposal of Russia, the US, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, there were about 15, 000 – SIPRI. This is only the declared number and ‘nuclear warhead’ not that simply assessed.
Regarding the present time
One facet of the future that we can ask and not answer is; whether there will be a shift typifying a change of awareness and in this awareness a changed conception of who our friends are, and why. The reason we introduce this is because an emerged awareness of the nature of the global community has to bring with it a stark realization of just how dangerous it has become, and where it will go is open to question. The fight against terrorism may well become globally integrated and better coordinated because of this. But the point for now is that the enormous shifting into the capacity to be aware (via mass media) will cement even more the fact that nothing can exist in isolation, the perpetrators of terror will make themselves known to a greater extent and whether or not during the recent past and present time it was possible to remain aloof from their effect and argue that systems of scrutiny infringe on personal freedoms and so on – this will change toward a realization that unless every possible avenue is seized so to thwart terror and the concomitant effects, very real, and not exaggeration, we will lose out and these effects will haunt like never before. This involves coordinated efforts not only via different nation states but among the populace as a whole and in this latter, a different conception of what ‘personal freedom’ ie. privacy, really means. What ideally it (the notion of personal freedom) will emerge into is perhaps toward a common understanding, that a private life or freedom as it is often referred means nothing to terrorists.
Islamic State surpassed *Boko Haram as the deadliest terror group during 2015. Islamic State undertook attacks in 252 different cities, and caused 6141 deaths.
Without wishing to give the impression that we dwell in the macabre, which we do not, there are means of cementing the latter into the psyche, simply, graphically. The first photograph :
Nigerian terror group *Boko Haram burns 87 children alive
Dalori, Nigeria. A survivor hidden in a tree recounts how he watched Boko Haram extremists (allied with the Islamic State**) firebomb huts and how he heard the screams of children burning to death. 86 died in the latest attack by Nigeria’s homegrown Islamic extremists.
Scores of charred corpses and bodies with bullet wounds littered the streets from the attack on Dalori village and two nearby camps housing 25,000 refugees, according to survivors and soldiers at the scene just 3 miles from Maiduguri, the birthplace of Boko Haram – the biggest city in Nigeria’s northeast.
The shooting, burning and explosions from three suicide bombers continued for nearly four hours in the unprotected area, survivor – weeping on a telephone call.
**Boko Haram, referred to by themselves as Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyyah (Islamic State West Africa Province), and Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihād, Group of the People of Sunnah for Preaching and Jihad
Islamic State (also called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Islamic State of Iraq and Sham)
Dzhebhat en-Nusra (Victory Front) (other names: Dzhabha
Do-Ahl al-Sham (Front Support Greater Syria), Al-Nusra
Boko Haram propaganda video – note the point of view
It’s not that atrocity is continually occurring, more that most in the West are completely unaware, for example; Uganda, southern Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Congo.
Kampala, Uganda – The terror group ‘Lord’s Resistance Army’ (LRA) killed at least 350 civilians and abducted 250 others, including at least 80 children, during an unreported four-day rampage in the Makombo area of northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, back in December of 2009.
The LRA massacres closer to the present day are worse.
The Makombo massacre was one of the worst ever committed by the LRA in its 23-year history – Anneke Van Woudenberg, senior Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The four-day rampage demonstrated that the LRA is a very serious threat to civilians and is not a spent force, as the Ugandan and Congolese governments claim.”
A 67-page report, “Trail of Death: LRA Atrocities in Northeastern Congo,” was the first detailed documentation of the Makombo massacre and other atrocities by the LRA in Congo during 2009 and early 2010. The report, based on a Human Rights Watch fact-finding mission to the massacre area in February, documented the brutal killings during the well-planned LRA attack from December 14 to 17 in the remote Makombo area of Haute Uele district.
LRA forces attacked at least 10 villages, capturing, killing, and abducting hundreds of civilians, including women and children. The vast majority of those killed were adult men, whom LRA combatants first tied up and then hacked to death with machetes, or crushed their skulls with axes and heavy wooden sticks. The dead included at least 13 women and 23 children, the youngest a 3-year-old girl who was burned to death. LRA combatants tied some of the victims to trees before crushing their skulls with axes.
The LRA also killed those they abducted who walked too slowly or tried to escape. Family members and local authorities later found bodies all along the LRA’s 105-kilometer journey through the Makombo area and the small town of Tapili. Witnesses interviewed said that for days and weeks after the attack, this vast area was filled with the “stench of death.”
Children and adults who managed to escape provided similar accounts of the group’s extreme brutality. Many of the children captured by the LRA were forced to kill other children who had disobeyed the LRA’s rules. In numerous cases documented,, children were ordered to surround the victim in a circle and take turns beating the child on the head with a large wooden stick until the child died.
The United Nations Peacekeeping Mission in Congo (MONUC) has some 1,000 peacekeeping troops in the LRA-affected areas of northeastern Congo – far too few to protect the population adequately, given the area’s size. Yet instead of sending more troops, the peacekeeping force, under pressure from the Congolese government to withdraw from the country by July 2011, was considering removing some troops from the northeast by June in the first phase of its draw down.
“The people of northeastern Congo are in desperate need of more protection, not less,” – Van Woudenberg. “The UN Security Council should stop any draw down of MONUC peacekeeping troops from areas where the LRA threatens to mass kill and abduct civilians.”
The Makombo massacre was part of a longstanding history of atrocities and abuse by the LRA in Uganda, southern Sudan, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Congo. Pushed out of northern Uganda in 2005, the LRA now operates in the remote border area between southern Sudan, Congo, and CAR. Back in 2005, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for the senior leaders of the LRA for crimes they committed in northern Uganda, but those indicted remain at large and this won’t change.
The Makombo massacre was perpetrated by two LRA commanders – Lt. Col. Binansio Okumu (also known as Binany) and a commander known as Obol. They reported to Gen. Dominic Ongwen, a senior LRA leader, who commands the LRA’s forces in Congo, and who is among those sought by the International Criminal Court.
Back in December 2008, the governments of the region, led by the Ugandan armed forces, with intelligence and logistical support from the United States, began a military campaign known as ‘Operation Lightning Thunder’ against the LRA, in northeastern Congo. A surprise aerial strike on the main LRA camp failed to neutralize the LRA leadership, which escaped. In retaliation, the LRA attacked villages and towns in northern Congo and southern Sudan, killing more than 900 civilians during the Christmas 2008 holiday season and during weeks thereafter.
On March 15, 2009, Operation Lightning Thunder officially ended, following pressure from the Congolese government, which found it politically difficult to support a continued Ugandan army presence on Congolese territory.
The future expectancy is human catastrophe.
Terror group “Dzhebhat en-Nusra” has replaced its skin:
Now they have become “Dzhebhat Fatah al-Sham” and formally split from the “Al-Qaeda”, and with it the authorization to promote “jihad” and so forth. According to sources etc. (Reuters sources) , Qatar and the rest of them have promised to increase support for the scum, that is, give more money, and supplies.
That’s what, one might even say “moderate” face group leaders. At the center of their permanent leader Abu Muhammad al-Dzhulani.
The next photographs perfectly display the aims and objectives of counter-terror efforts.
A few questions to consider are;
In what future form will we be following the terror? In what form might we be pre-empting – expecting and understanding its nature by understanding the perpetrators from different perspectives?
In this paradigm reside fundamental issues of human rights and respect for human life. Wars in this current time are resulting in the most extreme poverty amidst military conflict. War is the biggest enemy of human rights. The massacring of civilians is commonplace. The perpetrators are seeking to, and in certain respects are successfully deepening ties geographically for their mutual benefit.
Borders – will these represent multifaceted conflict, or will there be partnership? A good question.
What of core values? Some foresee the necessity to shift toward a ‘militarized’ society, in that the awareness of very real dangers are more a shared and accepted norm. What degree of resistance would there be to this new state of affairs and why? It’s not a debate about nationalism, but an attempt to define the course of the shifting tide; via shared concerted efforts, through solidarity.
International geopolitical strategies currently in operation are different in the context of countering terror. To be brief, the concerning issues are; own agendas, own roles, interests that are above fighting terror. As a result tension is rising with issues piling up. Clearly there are state priorities – to defeat terrorists, this being delegated to supposed sub-goals, if even that.
There are currently serious matters in establishing truth, this, because of hidden agendas among international organizations and as a result terror is gaining ground , ie. private interests are causing conflict. The Islamic State and its supporters should be top priority.
Diplomatic lines should or might become an eroding away of the pushing of own visions. Foreign affairs should or might be as dialogues, should or might overcome current petty disagreements, should or might represent economies that align for the benefit of all our citizens.
A common destiny, a collective effort through mutual respect? How likely?
Question : How is the reality of terrorism reported? For example : The BATACLAN THEATRE massacre. Paris. Might this change as the fullness of the acts of barbarity become known? What are the societal implications of so doing?
Recall, on the evening of 13 – 11 – 2015, a series of co-ordinated terrorist attacks occurred in Paris.
The Islamic State terrorists who attacked the Bataclan Theatre in Paris last November committed absolutely heinous acts of torture, including gouging the eyes and genitals of some hostages, according to a French report (15/07/2016)
Certain of the victims’ bodies from the second floor of the theater appeared to have been beheaded, eviscerated and otherwise mutilated, according to the report, which details testimony before a parliamentary committee by French police who rushed to the scene.
The committee chair, Georges Fenech, complained during the inquiry that accounts of the torture had been kept out of the press by government officials.
Fenech stated that he had heard personally of one especially grievous torture account : The father of one of the men slain had told him that his son had been disemboweled and castrated, with his testicles found in his mouth.
The testimony was taken March 21 during an in camera hearing before an investigative committee of the French National Assembly, as part of an inquiry into the attack. Minutes from the testimony have now been released.
“The bodies have not been shown to the families because they are people who are decapitated, people who are bloated and people who have been disemboweled,” one police witness told officials, according to the transcript.
When Fenech asked if the mutilations would have been videotaped by the terrorists, the witness answered, “It seems to me.”
“There are people decapitated, swollen and disemboweled. There are signs of sexual acts committed against women and knife cuts to genitals. If I am not mistaken, some of the eyes of certain people have been removed,” he answered.
The witness was later asked by Fenech how he’d come to learn of the acts of barbarism. He answered that he himself had only witnessed bodies struck by bullets, on the ground floor.
A good question is who, and/or what are we dealing with?
The Use of Propaganda by Terrorists (Discussed in Depth in Relevant Sections)
Without any argument to the contrary; the perpetrators of terror are now far better equipped, more professionally trained in all aspects of war. To be specific, the vehicle of atrocity – the propaganda machine, in the global dissemination of its diabolical message, is utilizing state of the art techniques of presentation.
In addition and in the current mode, the disseminating of ‘negative’ propaganda via various means, intended to show that the terrorists are losing, has the same effect as do the multi-source reports of the opposite; that they are winning. The instinct to kill, free of sanction, runs amok either way, but the emotions that fuel the inclination and requisite determination become more powerful in the face of what is shown to be an underdog, a second best. This is apparent miscalculation is unfortunate, considering the amount of tax payer revenue pumped into creating what, in effect, is resulting in a more dangerous and global situation.
Who we up against, the terrorists, as stated, enjoy support from the wealthiest, politically motivated Nation States and likewise, individuals on the planet, constituting tens of millions in revenue. This has to be borne in mind.
We are examining propaganda videos shot by Islamic State. One which appears the latest and obviously will not be the last calls for its followers (and those in the process of becoming) to use everyday items to carry out jihad, specifically singling out the USA and France as future targets.
Produced in Wilayat Al Khayr, an Islamic State occupied city in eastern Syria, the 20-minute Arab-language video is titled ‘Defend Your State,’ and did appear through social media channels used by Islamic State. Whether such propaganda can be ‘taken down’ is not the issue here.
This particular propaganda clip begins by *** stirring up anger against bombardments by the US-led coalition and the Russian Federation, of territory controlled by the terrorist group. There are several close-ups of dead children, killed by the “infidels.”
The slickly put-together video then highlights a roll call of recent “martyrs.” Those include Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlelhel, whose truck rampage resulted in the deaths of 86 people following an attack on Nice, France, and Aaron Driver, a failed white Canadian suicide bomber, who was shot dead by Toronto police on 10/08/2016, and who left a video in which he pledged allegiance to the Islamist State.
The video moves to a list of prominent symbolic targets, which include the Eiffel Tower in Paris, the Leaning Tower of Pisa, Italy and the Statue of Liberty in New York, USA
Recruits are instructed to use “any means available” and a medley flashes by, featuring a homemade rifle, a power screwdriver, a baseball bat, a contaminant in a test tube, and a syringe filled with a potentially lethal substance.
There is in addition; footage of a homemade rifle being assembled and a staged sequence of a person wearing a black rucksack approaching a French diplomatic mission.
While many of the aspects of the propaganda footage include casualties of the 9/11 attacks jumping to their deaths from stories the World Trade Center – staples of Islamic State video-graphy, they are also indicative of the current state of the radical Sunni jihadist group.
The Islamic State has suffered an unprecedented series of military reversals during the months of 2016, being forced to retreat by both the Iraqi army, and a Kurdish-led offensive in Syria, both employing heavy aerial support.
The terror group has lost control of Fallujah and Ramadi in Iraq, Palmyra in Syria, and Sirte in Libya. Accordingly 45,000 Islamic State fighters have either been killed or have fled, and the group is down to a core of only 15,000 militants. ** The source of these figures is likely inaccurate.
The Islamic State appears to be moving toward more asymmetrical confrontations with its ideological enemies.
It is estimated that to date at least 1,700 French citizens and 800 British left Europe to volunteer for the terror group. It is unclear how many of them are still alive and will be able to find their way * ‘home’.
Whether they should be allowed back at all is a very contentions question.
The Islamic State has been able to rely on maladjusted European and US citizens to carry out its jihad in a string of high-profile attacks.
Maladjustment is an issue we discuss. Certain of these derive not from expected impoverished and disenfranchised situations, are not the typical maladjusted profile, they are highly educated, which is a concern.
France has been worst-affected with over 220 deaths since the beginning of last year.
Islamic State terrorists own 33,000 combatants, will continue striving for global influence
The move into Central Asia
Firstly, in the Middle East the Islamic State has very considerable manpower, heavy armor and air defenses and is striving to extend its reach into Europe, Africa, Central and Southeast Asia, with the intention of becoming a literal Terrorist International Organisation.
The overall strength of Islamic State’s groupings reaches around 33,000 militants, including 19,000 in Iraq and 14,000 in Syria.
Islamic State militants are well-armed with tanks, armored personnel carriers, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles including man-portable air-defense systems.
Terror threats in Europe have significantly increased, EU nationals who traveled to the Middle East to fight alongside the Islamic State, are now returning, ready to utilize their experience.
More than 800 jihadists have returned to Germany over the past four years, with a tense situation persisting in areas inhabited by Islamic diaspora in Austria, Belgium, France and other Western European countries.
Moreover, they try to finance their activities by running illegal migration and drug trafficking routes to Europe.
Secondly, besides Europe, the Islamic State has deliberately advanced into Central Asia, where the security environment appears to be volatile because of the low-intensity conflict in Afghanistan. Islamist leaders strive to gain ground there by using the region’s conflict potential and stirring up inter-ethnic and inter-faith discord.
The Islamic State is building up its units in the region and set up a whole network of training camps all across Afghanistan and beyond.
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Hizb ut-Tahrir, Laskhar-e-Tayba and other Islamist factions have already pledged their allegiance to Islamic State.
The overall strength of IS-linked groups, which are formally independent, is around 4,500 militants.
As stated above, in Africa, Islamic State relies on its ally, Boko Haram, an 8,000+strong Islamist group in Nigeria. In Mali, Algeria, Mauritania and Niger, Al-Qaeda-linked groupings tend to compete with Islamic State for finance and influence.
In the meantime we cannot rule out creation of a Terrorist International.
But another pressing challenge that arises is Islamic State’s pivot towards Southeast Asia, Islamic State leaders are looking forward to include into Caliphate the territories of; Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, thereby extending their influence over the entire region with the population of over 250 million Muslims.
The question is, might the international community unite forces and rid itself of politicized bloc-centric approach to combating terrorism? We asked the question above, but have to admit that it seems unlikely, even though success or failure will largely rely on collaborative efforts with regard to all the countries concerned.
CONTINUATION AND INTEGRATION
Note : To view the video via this link you MUST be 18+
**Note; the video was deleted before we could copy it, but without doubt will surface again.
Well, because we want to remain within the propaganda parameters of the New Mind War, and in doing, extract from the world what presents as the seedbed of radicalization and concomitant terror, after all where chaos is the case, the future looks pretty bleak to say the least because not only is it bleak in every facet, it spreads. But in comparison present where we are, our civilized nature, the difference which we are taking into the future. There are no parallels we can see. Some might ask what this achieves, and the answer for now is that it achieves clarity of our core values. Obviously there are other ways of achieving this, but we will examine other ways forthwith.
Video one : Liberia
Video two : Contradistinction of Absolutes. Castle Howard. United Kingdom
The list of places in Europe and Africa that have suffered from jihadist terrorism is growing very rapidly; the seaside town of Grand-Bassam in Côte d’Ivoire, nightspots in Paris, and transport hubs in Brussels, to name just a few.
In Europe, it is no secret that the Islamic State has established a network of terror cells that is far wider and deeper than authorities had previously believed. In Africa, the number of deaths from jihadist violence has tripled from 2013 to 2015, as Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, Islamic State, and others have launched attacks across the continent. With competition among groups affiliated with Islamic State and Al Qaeda becoming more pronounced, the violence is likely to increase manifold.
The challenge for policymakers on both continents is to contain the rise of terrorism without eroding hard-won freedoms. Facing that challenge is a common calling; indeed, tackling it together is the only sustainable solution. To this end, two security platforms are collaborating on a unique intercontinental partnership. The Munich Security Conference Core Group Meeting will take place in Ethiopia on April 14-15, followed by the Fifth Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa, on April 16-17. In the face of trans-national, global security threats – including jihadist terrorism, but also the spread of pandemics and the consequences of climate change – the need for much closer and more effective European-African cooperation has become increasingly clear.
The unprecedented number of jihadist attacks in multiple countries in recent months of 2016 has demonstrated how vulnerable our societies have become and how transnational the threat is. No group illustrates the nature of the challenge more clearly than the Islamic State. From its origins as a terrorist group capitalizing on state failure in Iraq and Syria, it has spread as a contagion from Afghanistan to Nigeria and has perpetrated or inspired attacks as far abroad as the United States and the Philippines. And, as afore-stated, in addition to its territorial conquests and physical networks of followers, the Islamic State has established a firm foothold online – far more so than has any other jihadist organization.
Combating the Islamic State and similar groups will require a strategy for both battlefields – physical and digital. Such an approach will have to include military components, improved intelligence work, and better information sharing. But we need to do more than just suppress the jihadist contagion; it must be eradicated. To that end, we must continue addressing the root causes of jihadism, and the conditions that allow it to thrive.
The recent series of setbacks that the Islamic State has suffered in Iraq and Syria should not be interpreted as a sign of its impending demise. On the contrary, the Islamic State and other groups are seeking new hosts and conditions that are favorable to their spread; all too often and with success, they are finding them. >>African countries are at particular risk; Jihadist groups have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to exploit disorder and weak state structures. The Islamic State’s advances in Libya are only the latest example.
Al Qaeda and the Islamic State may have global aspirations, but their ability to penetrate a society is strongly influenced by local conditions- subsystems that are peculiar to that society. Jihadist organizations attempt to exploit discontent among marginalized groups in unstable and/or made unstable societies. Thus, counter-jihadist strategies must focus on strengthening vulnerable states and eliminating the conditions that allow jihadist groups to take root. This effort is particularly urgent in North Africa, East Africa, and the Sahel, where jihadists are currently operating; but, over the medium to long term, other parts of the African continent will also require attention.
According to United Nations projections, Africa’s population is expected to more than double during the next 35 years, from 1.20 billion to 2.5 billion. This presents both enormous opportunities and significant challenges. If countries are able to provide their citizens with the infrastructure and institutions needed to thrive, they will be among the twenty-first century’s most dynamic societies.
Should they fail to accomplish this, however, the result could be widespread, accelerated state collapse and the impoverishment and potential radicalization of millions of people. Among the many horrific consequences of such an outcome would be mass migration toward Europe and other Western countries and the creation of fertile recruiting grounds for new generations of jihadists.
The importance of Africa’s development to the entire global community should be obvious. And yet, despite the high stakes, Europe – and the global community more broadly – have not devoted the attention and resources that the issue does merit. Today, more than ever, it would be extremely unwise for the reasons outlined – to allow that to continue. A stronger partnership between Africa and Europe can make the difference.
Room 15. A Discussion on the Nature of Future Warfare – in prep *
* Notably to address the question; what of the war theatre where humans cannot enter because the weapons engaged will ensure, unequivocally, that none will survive? During WWI (1914-18) and which many if asked would not be too familiar, five out of six bombs delivered by each side were chlorine – a chemical weapon. What is the case now is a literal quantum leap from then.
** Recently, a reporter in Washington DC asked passers by about the Second World War (1940-45) and the answers were alarming to say the least because none were familiar, (one thought that Germany was fighting the Nazis) yet, arguably, these same own justifications made on their behalf for aggression.
Disunity, the pursuit of egotistical interests will continue to hinder the war on terror and could become more of a negative feature
Political ambitions and egotistical national interests arguably are the major stumbling block to defeating global terrorism.
The major obstacles to defeat of various armed terror groups is the lack of unity in the face of the global threat.
Can anyone fight terror alone? What of the future? – No one should assume that they can escape the consequences of the rapid spread of terrorism’s extremely rapid spread in our modern and inter-connected world.
No one can feel confident; nobody is living in a castle surrounded by a moat. No one can hide from terrorists behind an ocean. The inter-connected nature of terror groups organize their cells globally, including in the Asia-Pacific and Central Asia where they are already gaining a foothold.
The only viable solution to the spread of terrorism is a common global approach?
The recent attacks in Europe have demonstrated that terrorism does not recognize state borders.
What of United States and Russia relations?
These are becoming more strained by the week even given the positive outcome of the apparent cooperation between the US and Russia in the fight against terrorists in Syria.
Russia has stated very categorically that it will not tolerate any attempt to dictate to how to act and will retaliate against any military advances of NATO member states close to Russia’s borders, such as the current stationing of a missile defense system THAAD (Romania)*** with regard to military and technical capabilities.
A restoring of military cooperation between NATO and Russia is possible on the principles of equality, dialogue, mutual respect and acknowledgement of each others interests. To what extent an unrealistic ideal, partial to total?
*** The THAAD terminal high-altitude area defence missile system – an easily transportable defensive weapon system to protect against hostile incoming threats such as tactical and theatre ballistic missiles at ranges of 200km and at altitudes up to 150km. The THAAD system provides the upper tier of a ‘layered defensive shield’ to protect high value strategic or tactical sites such as airfields or populations centres. The THAAD missile intercepts exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric threats. The sites would also be protected with lower and medium-tier defensive shield systems such as the Patriot PAC-3 which intercepts hostile incoming missiles at 20 to 100 times lower altitudes.
Interesting or not, depending how one perceives it and why, are the statements from a certain former deputy commander of the North Atlantic Alliance that over the coming year (2016) is the ‘high possibility of nuclear war with Russia’.
Apparently, a very high probability that the “purpose of the attack” will be Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia.
The response from the other side was; “It looks like some madmen take on this job.”
We think the appeal to nuclear war is interesting, but only because it has no basis whatsoever, more in a destiny devoid of meaning, as per the latter – there would be no one left to construct any meaning. There are no arguments to the contrary, irrespective of who is or will be presenting the arguments.
This is a scenario addressed in other Sections herein, but suffice it to say that; perceiving, understanding and constructing a future has to be an effort disconnected from the contents of only one mind frame (or indeed that of a few). Many would say that’s the way it is, and point to economic and cultural summits that are planned so to do, but it doesn’t detract from high ranking persons introducing thermo-nuclear war as a strategy against ‘geo-strategic enemies.’ By virtue of their positions, their doing something of this nature, places into minds a baseless sincerity for what should only ever be construed as fictional, however pathological.
As stated, and it can rephrased as a question; Institutional self-interests, civilizational and social values serve who? Be it military structure suppliers, increases in defense spending?
Again we cover this elsewhere, but in a social climate where ideas become legitimized via egocentric propaganda fed into practically everything and the fact that most do not have even a limited comprehension of war, historical or contemporary, then the likelihood of a super-power engagement via for example, unintended circumstances, might well generate support, however misled.
Future years may see a discontinuing of the aggressive, the bravado, or if not at least it be pointed toward where it ought.
What future response to THAAD? Is a friendly future assured – not?
Apparently Russia is already preparing an ‘unprecedented response’ to the European missile defense system.
The Russian president stated that the deployment of the US missile defense system in Romania and Poland is not a ‘defensive system’, more that it constitutes part of the US nuclear capability which has been taken to the periphery, to Eastern Europe.
“Now, after the placement of missile defense elements we will have to think about how to arrest the threats arising in respect of the security of the Russian Federation. We offer cooperation, working together with our American partners, it was, in fact, rejected, “- said Vladimir Putin. “We proposed not to work, but just talk on a given topic. Nothing concrete, everything is done unilaterally, without regard to our concerns “, – he told.
In Romania – Deveselu, is already deployed US missile complex Aegis Ashore. In addition, the construction of a missile defense base began in the Polish village of Redzikowo. Apparently, water that borders Russia (for example, the Black Sea) are constantly US Navy destroyers with the Aegis system, and persistent spy planes “patrolling” at the very borders of Russia – spying on Russian air defense forces, the Strategic Missile Forces and videoconferencing.
NATO leaders have repeatedly officially stated that they see no possibility of peace with Russia. And the Pentagon openly admitted that Russia is now “smart and modern, but the enemy” – and it comes right up to the training of pilots of the EU nuclear bombing “of a certain large country”.
So how might Russia respond to the emergence of elements of a US missile defense system near its borders?
Firstly, Russia is returning to the production of combat rail missile systems – the first BZHRK “Barguzin” will be created up to 2020, which will carry up to three or even six nuclear missiles with multiple warheads. According to the military, and the opinion of foreign experts, disguised as ordinary trains, BZHRK be “elusive” for NATO satellites and can suddenly hit targets on the territory of any State.
“Intercontinental missile” Bulava-30 “, equipped with multiple warheads and capable of hitting targets in America, who took on combat duty at the latest next year – it will be a response to the placement of NATO missile defense Romania” – CNN has reported.
Also Russia plans to adopt the rocket “Sarmat”, which can “within seconds destroy the whole country.” – current missile technology “is absolutely not able to stop this.”
Russia has officially stated that it will deploy “Iskander” in the heart of Europe, in the Kaliningrad region – can carry nuclear warheads – but even in the non-nuclear version of “Iskander” can become a very deadly threat for European missile defense elements, and for the headquarters and military bases.
Do not forget that the former head of the Strategic Missile Forces Viktor Esin declassified priority objectives and Russian nuclear strike weapons in the event of a US attack on Russia. For example, the first thing Russia will erase in the notorious nuclear ashes of a US missile defense base on the coast of Romania and Poland.
In short, and moving into a more friendly world it seems that the US and Europe will have to experience what life is like targeted by the Russian “Yars” nuclear missile “Topol-M”, “Bulava” tactical nuclear weapons and cruise missiles and strategic bombers. !
“Technically, it is very simple. Developed flight mission for intercontinental ballistic missiles for the defeat of threatening military targets in the same Poland, Romania, and so on. Where will any warheads, roughly speaking. Next is the flight mission, if necessary for starting is transmitted and loaded into computer system ICBM. It – seconds. Everything is ready to burn the missile radars, launchers, airfields and military bases, or the country as a whole “, – a source in the press the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
A senior source in the Russian Defense Ministry; “If there is a place that threatens the security of the Russian Federation, it is taken “on sight “- roughly airbase carriers of nuclear weapons, warehouses, missile defense systems, ports and waters shock of finding submarines. So does every country “, – to quote the general.
“As for the stationary missile defense sites, in particular those that NATO plans to deploy in Europe – in Poland and Romania, they clearly fall into the list of priorities for the fire effect,”
More? Russia will develop and implement an asymmetrical response to NATO
An asymmetric response to the NATO, the Russian side will respond with the creation of ‘missile trains’. What else, boggles the mind.
Military analysts believe that the revival of missile trains, which will be equipped with intercontinental ballistic missiles, Russia would be a response to the creation of a US missile defense. In the conditions of increasing military tension Russian nuclear deterrent forces should have maximum mobility.
BZHRK “Barguzin” would be adequate asymmetric step in the deployment of US missile defense in Europe, I am sure Aytech Bizhev, head of the Joint Air Defence System of the CIS countries in 2003-2007.
The length of the railway network in Russia will allow to move the mobile disguised as a regular part of missile train on the territory of the country.
Another reason for the revival of BZHRK experts call the creation of a “Boundary” missile, which is based in one rather than two cars, as being “Good”.
The appearance of the missile train “Barguzin” does not go beyond the START-3. BZHRK “Barguzin” can carry 6 nuclear inter-continental ballistic missiles, which are designed on the basis of missiles “Yars”. Summary of the missile train is classified so that’s as much as we know.
To conclude, US-Russia relations are not bad, they are terrible and destined, if present conditions persist, to become worse still. *
05/2016 Russia, held a further successful launch of missile Nudol – capable of destroying satellites in orbit.
The launch of Nudol passed from the Cosmodrome Plesetsk – was spotted by US satellites. At the moment it is stated ‘no other information is available’, but has to be said that such tests confirm that Russia has developed a satellite killer weapon and therefore all the navigation and intelligence for communication satellites are under threat of destruction.
A Brief Note Concerning Russia, the West and the Future
It is interesting to ask the question ; Might the world stage be set for an immense transformation during the next twenty years, thus creating three main global power blocs: Transatlantic, Euro-Asian, and Middle Eastern?
Another way of putting it; could the world be arriving at a situation where there will come to be three centers of power?
North Africa constitutes an awfully bad arc of instability and Islamist extremism, stretching from Algeria and Morocco to Afghanistan; this arc could well expand and quickly, because sufficiently well-organized forces do operate there, while the states in these areas are weak, especially in economic terms, and there is the factor of the influence of foreign powers.
This hypothetical tripartite model, developing over the next twenty years, perhaps will as said, include the Transatlantic arc, strengthened in some areas, and remaining amorphous in others; not all European countries are bound to be included, but this bloc could exist based on certain common values, ideas and strategies.
There could also be an arc of tension passing through Africa and parts of Asia; where a new ideology emerges that the West, would find threatening.
An alliance could be created in Eurasia, consisting of governments merging so to play a leading role in the world.
Eurasia could be created around the powerful BRICS group of countries, or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – a geopolitical and Geo-strategic alliance consisting of Russia, China, Iran, and perhaps India and / or Turkey.
Who knows who the victor is likely to be in the current geopolitical confrontation between the West and Russia.
One could not do worse than look at the relations between Russia and Europe over the last quarter-century, from the fall of the USSR, and certain American predictions (predilections?) on the death of Russia, succeeded by supposed ‘eternal US hegemony’. This, besides being an unfruitful suggestion to pursue, is rubbish.
But the situation today is undeniably constitutive of a return to the Cold War
The world order as it exists now is entering a stage of uncertainty, to say the least, and could well be on the verge of a major shift. It is obviously difficult to define precisely how events will unfold. That is, while proxy wars using real armies and resulting in massive death toll and human suffering continue.
The contributions of; cyber warfare, hybrid warfare, and information warfare are very likely to increase in importance. The victims of these types of wars could well result in humanity’s ability to reason – and beckon attempts by certain nations to control political processes in other countries. Altogether, these processes certainly do herald the danger of leading to a slide imperceptibly, into armed confrontation and concomitant nuclear war.
The question whether the ability to empathize, to listen to the other side, to engage diplomacy will disappear in its entirety? The cross fertilization of knowledge, culture and values, not to forget commerce – this process becoming literally extinct? It certainly appears that way. In this, are very dangerous attempts so to drive countries such as Russia, and China, into a corner – to turn these countries into pariahs.
If this is ever successful, one outcome is absolutely certain.
Arguably, knowing and dominating the definitions of words, cross-culturally, is key to winning the international war of ideas. Public diplomacy, public affairs, information operations, psychological operations and political warfare are all aspects of strategic communication and counter-insurgency. They will be more effective if we as practitioners fearlessly exploit the wealth of words that culture offers to define ideas and shape understanding of them.
One way of looking at it is via incorporating a new vocabulary; if not jihad, then what? If terrorists are not, in truth, ‘holy warriors’ but rather, mass-murdering scum, what do we call them, and what should the message to the rest of the Muslim world be? Tilting the playing field requires undermining the enemy and destroying its ideas – not merely refuting them or competing with them in an intellectual manner.
Islam and that the nations of Abrahamic religions are united against a common mortal enemy. By necessity and some will doubtlessly disagree, the political counter-attack in the war of ideas should be geared toward depriving radical elements (scum) of their ability to dominate religious semantics and rhetoric. In so doing, we will be helping to destroy the image of the enemy as ‘hero’ ‘mentor’ ‘significant other’. Doing so means adjusting rhetoric so as not to hinder civilized Muslims in the recovery of their ideas. If the current idea of jihad as terrorism is offensive to the average Muslim, who sees the same word as a just and good action we must look for other words to describe its enemy and obviously its actions.
Of course, the above is merely theoretical and arguably only inculcates a part of the problem. It does not include those funding, arming and training terrorists to suit their own ends – Given this scenario, any information war is likely to continue on its current course which is subservient and to date has failed in the face of the more impact, resource-based support.
If terrorists are being treated in such a manner – and they are so, there is no argument to the contrary – what chance can there be of defeating them by use of semantics? A good question.
What they can be told and made to realize unequivocally is who and what we are.
‘Cubs of the caliphate’ :
The implications for the future of child soldiers, the indoctrination/radicalization of children. Where these children will end up, with what psychological issues and precisely what motivation has to be taken into account.
Children as young as ten years are used as executioners, shields, blood donors and suicide bombers. The list is not exhaustive.
Islamic State – baby capture
Obviously, the implications for the future of women; the indoctrination/radicalization of women by terror groups such as, and not confined to, the Islamic State, will (unfortunately) become very much more apparent. We shall be dealing with this phenomena (along with the use of children) in the committing of global terror acts in much more detail, thus referring to and expanding elements of the Counter-Terrorism Library.
We have ENEMIES – An important word regarding terrorists
Here are statements I intend to examine and expand. We can debate these later, if you would like. I suggest we do :
(I) It is the case that hatred is ignited by the very fact of our example and because we cause changes in systems whose rigidly held convictions are inseparable from political control.
(II) I can therefore ask the question, what does it mean to have ‘conviction’? Does it mean anything in a substantive way? Is conviction a by-product of the capacity to make words and express thoughts such that anything can be the case and the invention subsequently assumed to be ‘real’?
(III) I think the mind-set that is steeped in conviction is steeped in the potential for terrorism. That, if you like, conviction is an open gate and terrorism a path from it to wherever the convicted wish it to go. Along the way are built monuments.
(IV) I can imagine other gates and other paths, all of the same design, but certain are larger than others, the largest being religious conviction and the widest road that of terrorism stemming from it. Upon these roads and in varying capacities are ‘armies’ of thought and action.
(V) Ideally, I want to examine the underlying structure of conviction, its bricks and mortar because by so doing I can ascertain how best to undermine it and sufficient that I can try and cause it to fall apart.
(VI) However, can there be an undermining of rigidly held conviction? It is not possible to affect conviction through economic threat, nor military threat.
(VII) And remember, not all people within our nation are of the same mind. There are those who constitute the most dangerous seed beds within – including those home-grown, who want-to-be jihads, hell-bent on indiscriminate acts of mass-murder.
(VIII) We must understand who are the most dangerous bearers of hatred and construe the means by which they can be undermined. We have to identify the inputs from these sources exactly for what they are and act accordingly. At our disposal as a weapon is our oppressive power. (pause) You know, interesting it most certainly is, is to see how others who are intent on harming are not able to empathize and often in response to practically all that they view as their ‘enemy’, results in a greater cementing into their psyche. While living among us the multiplicity of things that are offered are seen other than how they are intended. The desire to harm is a pervasive state of mind, a seizure of instinct by what is propaganda that does persist and does reinforce those susceptible. The instinct is the desire; the vehicle so to do is the belief that it is right. Our requirement to step into the minds of terrorists with the intention of understanding them does not necessarily aid in halting their actions. It is their actions that affect us and in accordance with our determination to protect, it is their actions we have to prevent. In this context, the proposition tendered by some that one terrorist is someone’s freedom fighter is nonsense.
CONTINUATION AND INTEGRATION
THE NEW GLOBALIZATION
China has moved so very fast there are people from different centuries living together in the same society
Chinese President Xi Jinping in his speech on day 01/07/2016 said the need for a strategic alliance between Russia and China, which he believes will determine the future world order.
“The world is on the verge of radical change. We see how the European Union is gradually collapsing, as the collapsing US economy, is all over the new world order. So as soon as there will never, in 10 years we will have a new world order in which the key will be the union of China and Russia, ” – Xi.
He said relations between Russia and China should not be limited to economic relations, these countries can create an alternative to NATO.
“We are now seeing the aggressive actions by the United States, both in respect of Russia and China. I believe that Russia and China could create an alliance to which NATO will do nothing and it will put an end to the imperialist desire of the West,” – Xi.
Xi Jinping is also confident that China needs to upgrade its military to state of the art.
“Creation of the army, which corresponds to the international status of our country – it is a strategic task. We must combine economic development with defense development, modernize the army, that it is a modern and standardized. We need to comprehensively promote reform in the military sphere to create an army that would be disciplined and could win “, – Xi Jinping, at the gala meeting on the occasion of the 95th anniversary of the Communist party of China.
BEIJING : The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank expects new members to join the bank in the beginning of 2017, President Jin Liqun said recently, 07/2016.
“I warmly welcome representatives of the countries that may potentially apply for accession to AIIB. The Bank expects applications from those who want to join AIIB. We look forward to new members accession in the beginning of 2017,” Jin told the opening ceremony of the two-day AIIB meeting in Beijing.
The president added that the deadline for applying was month 10/2016.
The AIIB, an international financial institution proposed by China to invest in infrastructure projects in the Asia-Pacific region, was created during month 10/2014 and currently has 57 founding members.
Photograph : Buildings seen through the haze at the central business district in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province © 2016. Courtesy Alex Lee / Reuters
RUSSIA. THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
NATO, BRICS AND THE NEW SILK ROAD – OBOR – IMPLICATIONS
A DANGER ZONE ?
The South China Sea; “Prepare for possible ‘war on water’,” Beijing informs citizens
The Chinese defense minister has warned the tense situation in the South China Sea poses the threat of a direct confrontation and has called on the military, police and general population to be ready to defend the country’s territorial integrity.
Chang Wanquan made the statement while inspecting military installations in China’s eastern coastal Zhejiang Province, – Xinhua (without giving the timing of the comments).
The seriousness of the national security situation should be recognized, particularly when it comes to threats posed at sea, – Chang.
The Chinese military, law enforcement and citizens must be ready for mobilization in the event of a “people’s war at sea.”
The general public should be educated on the subject of national defense issues because national sovereignty and territorial integrity are at risk, according to the minister.
Chang’s statement comes amidst unprecedented tensions over the disputed islands in the South China Sea, where Beijing has been building airstrips and military installations on reclaimed reefs and islands in waters also claimed by a number of other Asian states.
Is war inevitable in the South China Sea?
The US Navy has dispatched naval destroyers and military planes to the immediate proximity of the disputed islands, claiming it has done so to ‘ensure the principles of freedom of navigation in international waters’. Washington has been also involved in a number of military drills in the region.
Beijing has slammed the naval and aerial displays by the US as provocations, and reinforced installation on the islands with anti-ship missile and air-defense complexes.
China’s 2.3 million-strong People’s Liberation Army is “fully confident and very capable of addressing all security threats and provocations,” – Chang, while addressing a summit dedicated to the 89th anniversary of the PLA’s inception.
President Xi Xinping has warned President Obama against threatening China’s sovereignty & national interests
On Tuesday, China’s Supreme Court issued a regulation reaffirming the jurisdiction of national courts over the country’s territory, including the 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). It warned citizens and foreigners alike of criminal liability for violations such as illegal fishing or killing endangered wildlife in the zone.
“People’s courts will actively exercise jurisdiction over China’s territorial waters, support administrative departments to legally perform maritime management duties, equally protect the legal rights of Chinese and foreign parties involved and safeguard Chinese territorial sovereignty and maritime interests.”
Any fishing boats refusing to leave Chinese waters or caught fishing illegally there more than once in a year are subject to a fine, while the crew could be given a prison term of up to one year.
Foreigners who feel their rights have been violated by the Chinese authorities are free to deliver their claims to Chinese courts, the ruling said.
THE SHEER FORCE OF THE NEW GLOBALIZATION
Trade Protectionism, Isolationism, Populism, and Extremism. The World Stands at a New Juncture
Beijing has given a clear response to anti-globalization : The world can get better with the Belt and Road Initiative. China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt that links China with Europe through central and western Asia, and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road connecting China with southeast Asia, Africa and Europe. Since the initiative was proposed three years ago, it has made a large impact on the world.
The initiative can help the world economy recover from the 2008 Financial Crisis, since it’s more crucial to invest in the real economy rather than create financial bubbles. For developed countries, engaging in re-industrialization is much easier said than done.
The TTIP, TPP and re-industrialization have become fruitless. The Belt and Road remains by far the most viable international cooperation initiative to guide the world economy to revitalize cross-border regional cooperation to bring brighter prospects for global investors.
On 17/08/2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping attended a forum to promote the Belt and Road as an opportunity to carry out cross-border interconnections, enhance global trade and investment, promote international production capacity and equipment manufacture cooperation, by increasing supply to stimulate new demand to re-balance the world economy.
President Xi said that the global economy is undergoing a downturn. Realizing huge production capacity and capacity-building formed in procyclical years going abroad, can satisfy the urgent needs of those countries along the Belt and Road region for their industrialization, modernization and upgrading infrastructure to stabilize global economic conditions.
Nations all over the world are learning from the East, learning the Chinese model, taking a development path in line with their national conditions. More than 100 countries and international organizations have showed interest to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, while more than 30 countries have signed agreements with China to jointly build it and carried out international production capacity cooperation with 20 countries. The United Nations and other international organizations hold a positive attitude. Some financial cooperation had been deepened with establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Silk Road Fund (SRF).
A number of projects have already been undertaken. The Belt and Road’s progress has exceeded expectations, which highlights the charms of the Chinese model to reflect the world’s disappointment of the US and western models. The initiative is featured with Chinese characteristics.
The belt refers to the economic corridor and economic development zone, reflecting China’s reform and opening-up. The Silk Road Economic Belt supports the work in the entire area, gradually forming large regional cooperation.
There’s a Chinese saying; “anyone who wants to get rich must first build roads, for quick wealth needs express ways.” Interconnections on infrastructure are the key focus.
The Belt and Road refers to many roads instead of one road, which everyone can share. According to the market economy, Uzbekistan is struggling, because the poor landlocked country needs loans from international financial institutions.
Xi visited Tashkent to grant the country loans from China’s State Development Bank. Developing infrastructure first, and then gradually upgrade the external environment when the market economy requires it.
The Belt and Road supports government plus the market to help Toshkent get loans from CDB and AIIB. Beijing has found a development path in line with its national conditions.
Other countries are also breaking the notion that universal values of Western countries and Washington Consensus should be the only rule, and they are exploring new development paths in their own national conditions, which could restore diversity to the world.
It’s time to restore confidence in inclusive globalization. Western countries have become a global power where global expansion means Western modernity. Yet, Western developed economies account for less than 40% of the global economy. They can no longer be the engine driver for globalization, but the source of anti-globalization.
Since the global financial crisis, China has become the hub of global industrial activities and a standard-bearer for globalization. Xi said the Belt and Road means Beijing welcomes every party to ride on China’s development express train.
Beijing welcomes states and international organizations to participate, since China launched its modernization at the world’s largest scale, facing the greatest difficulties. The Belt and Road can make globalization more inclusive, sustainable, and reasonable.
The Belt and Road is correcting globalization through interconnection in the fields of policy, facility, trade, finance, and people’s will, co-ordinations between land and sea, at home and abroad, politics and economy. The initiative aims to achieve a re-balance between inland areas and coastal areas, politics and economic development; transforming the dual economic structure of developing countries.
Building a Silk Road on green, health, wisdom, and peace and grasping development, this common denominator would benefit the Chinese and all others. The world’s perception of the Belt and Road has endured a change from wait-and-see suspicions to an active and positive response.
The world is watching Washington, and Washington is watching Beijing. Initially, Washington believed the Belt and Road was just a buzz word for China’s new leader, and they deemed it an ambitious illusion.
The successful establishment of AIIB last April opened many people’s eyes. Washington watched and Think Tanks began to study the initiative with a geopolitical point of view, claiming Beijing wanted The Silk Road Economic Belt instead of the Silk Road.
The sea is open, but Washington claimed China wanted to squeeze Russian territory via The Silk Road Economic Belt, which would trigger a Sino-Russian strategic rivalry and cause China to suffer disastrous consequences.
Eventually, the rest of the world discovered that Washington did not explicitly oppose the Belt and Road, after its European allies joined the AIIB. More national governments are supporting it, but think tanks and business people remain suspicious of Beijing’s strategic intent.As more people enjoy the benefits, Beijing can expect more countries to cast suspicions aside. In the past three years, the Belt and Road has sparked strong enthusiasm at home and abroad.
Washington should not oppose it. Beijing’s confidence to build the Belt and Road has attracted many other countries to join in. The Dean of Lebanon Confucius Institute said “the 21st century is China’s century, and Beirut should grasp the opportunity of the Belt and Road.”
Beijing had led a successful poverty alleviation campaign, which had attracted more global support; while some countries have expressed dismay over Washington and western states. They had witnessed the Arab Spring turn into an Arab Winter nightmare.
The world’s public goods supply gap is widening. Washington’s leadership and honesty have declined. Asian infrastructure has a gap of eight trillion US dollars, thus Beijing’s proposal to establish the AIIB has become a major success story.
Washington’s opposition looks ineffective. The Belt and Road intends to address major concerns for our society and to achieve the United Nations’ sustainable development agenda in 2030.
1.1 billion people around the world have no access to electricity. They need a national grid covering long distances and UHV grids to minimize costs for modernization. The US Bloomberg forecast that the Belt and Road would bring three billion people into the middle class ranks by 2050.
Beijing’s initiative is inclusive and open, reflecting the world’s voice. During the Sixth World Forum on China Studies, Nov. 2015, an Egyptian scholar said Western countries’ are exporting arms and turmoil into the Middle East to grab more oil. But Beijing brings economic development cooperation initiatives instead.
At the fifth China-EU High level Forum of political parties, the former Romanian Prime Minister Victor Ponta said it is time for Europe to remove the scales from their eyes. It is hard to predict in the next five months. But the Chinese are making the design for the next fifty years.
Chairman of the Latvian Friendship Association said there has never existed an ambitious cooperation initiative in history.
It goes beyond the imagination of Europeans. The Belt and Road could become one of the human beings’ greatest initiatives. Increasing international public goods demand to resolve poor supply capacity is the driving force for building the Belt and Road.
Principles of joint negotiations, sharing and concepts of benefits, responsibilities, and common destinies proposed by The Belt and Road favor new international relations to enjoy win-win cooperation in the 21st century.
Creating an open, inclusive, balanced, commonly beneficial regional economic cooperation framework, would fill the short board of globalization that promotes development from partial globalization to inclusive globalization direction to reflect the global responsibility of a rising China.
Some might make the charge that China is defending globalizatiion. If they do, which is likely, a distinction can be made between neo-liberal capitalist globalization, which is a major component of predatory imperialism and socialist globalization, which is a major component of an internationalist policy of growth, development and co-prosperity. It is interesting to consider what the nature of the issues are, and coming from where.
The East Wind locomotive, arrived week beginning 16 01 2017 in London, loaded with ‘made in China’ manufacturing after having departed from Yiwu, on 02 01 2017. Yiwu is one of the world’s major trade hubs, with everyone and his neighbor from Africa, South America, Central Asia, South Asia, Middle East, constituting a massive non-stop emporium.
Around 12,000 km in 16 days is still a very long haul – from China through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Belgium, France, and London’s east end, at the Barking rail freight terminal.
Yet it’s already faster than a container ship and cheaper than a cargo plane. Of course it’s not the same train – because of different rail gauges in a few countries.
But these are just the early steps in the New Silk Roads saga. The future is Trans-Eurasian direct cargo trains on high-speed rail.
On the passenger side, the action is on the Moscow-Kazan high-speed connection; investment from China, construction by a German consortium, to be finished by 2023. The route will be extended to Kazakhstan and then all the way to Beijing.
There are already no less than 39 lines on the China-Europe cargo shuttle. Russia is also developing its own high-speed rail freight train – also to link to Kazakhstan. Russia-China investment on high-speed rail cargo is massive. East Wind will soon become an anthropological artifact; the long haul from China to Europe will drop to only two days.
QUANTUM ENTANGLEMENT : CHINA’S NEW TECHNOLOGY
SHENZHOU II. MANNED SPACE MISSION. THE SPACE STATION
Winds of Change – Unlimited Ambition – Revolutionary Transformation – Diversity
Quantum Computing. The Implications for Future Security
Photograph : Beijing Aerospace Control Center. © 2017 courtesy Ju Zhenhua
China / USA / Australia
Quantum Computing. The Implications for Future Security
Quantum cryptography utilizes quantum effects to secure a line of communication. QUESS uses a technique called quantum key distribution, which ensures that any attempt of a third party to gain knowledge of a key used to encrypt and decrypt messages would be noticed by the communicating parties, because the act of measuring a quantum system inevitably alters it. The satellite generates clandestine keys and sends them to two ground stations via entangled pairs of photons, where they are used to establish secure communication between the two locations.
Bolstered by the success of its first quantum communications satellite, China is eyeing the next steps in a quest to make a secure global network. It plans a series of inter-continental quantum distribution experiments with Australia and Europe.
China is a pioneering nation in bringing quantum cryptography into Earth’s orbit with its Quantum Experiments at Space Scale (QUESS) satellite, which it launched in 2016. QUESS (named Micius after an ancient Chinese philosopher), is a proof-of-concept project, which demonstrated that quantum communication is possible over a distance of over a thousand kilometers.
The mission is planned to last at least two years, and Chinese scientists are planning for both new experiments with QUESS and future launches of better quantum communication satellites.
By the end of August 2017, the satellite will be used to establish quantum communication across continents, linking China with a ground station in Graz, Austria – Pan Jianwei, lead scientist of QUESS, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Further experiments this year (2017) will involve ground stations in Germany and Italy, bringing the project closer to the planned Asian-European secure communication network. They are to confirm the compatibility of the equipment used by Chinese scientists with that used by other nations.
The technology will eventually allow for a global quantum communication network with a constellation of satellites providing the service.
At present, the current satellite can only establish a quantum link with the ground when there is no interference from the Sun – when the spacecraft is in Earth’s shadow. Only after this limitation is dealt with can satellites be placed on more practical higher orbits or work in constellations.
“When Micius flies over China, the experiment window is about 10 minutes. But if we have a satellite in orbit at 10,000km, the time for quantum key distribution could be several hours. And if we have a satellite in orbit at 36,000km, it can cover a third of the Earth all the time. To increase the coverage, we plan to send satellites to higher orbits and construct a satellite constellation, which requires developing many new pieces of technology.”
Quantum cryptography utilizes quantum effects to secure a line of communication. QUESS uses a technique called quantum key distribution, which ensures that any attempt of a third party to gain knowledge of a key used to encrypt and decrypt messages would be noticed by the communicating parties, because the act of measuring a quantum system inevitably alters it.
The satellite generates clandestine keys and sends them to two ground stations via entangled pairs of photons, where they are used to establish secure communication between the two locations.
The satellite contains a quantum key communicator, a processing unit, a laser communicator, quantum entanglement emitter, and entanglement source to transmit quantum keys to Earth. QUESS uses a principle of ‘quantum entanglement’, an act of fusing two or more particles into complementary ‘quantum states’. Quantum communication is designed to be hack-proof as a quantum photon used in the process can neither be separated nor duplicated without detection.
CONTINUATION AND INTEGRATION – OTHER ISSUES
President elect Donald Trump: One question to ponder is regarding his foreign policy nostrums notably his tilt towards Russia and disavowal of interventionist neo-liberal color revolutions. Might these have nothing to do with a quest for peace and sustainable development but more a reformulating of how the US maintains its global hegemony and imperialist program? If so, what of it?
Some argue that Trump’s pivot towards Russia is motivated by the need to draw Russia away from dependence on China. By implication, the China-Russia alliance is an existential threat to the continued global hegemony of US Imperialism.
Is neo-nationalism in anyone’s long-term interests other than the US Military Industrial Complex and other industrial and financial complexes which define US Imperialism, the final stage of global capitalism?
Each of the post-Cold War US presidents, and their many advisers, did pursue a vision of foreign policy as a type of global social work, however each did seek to accommodate China’s interests.
This was done in the hope that an economically growing China would moderate politically and become a responsible stakeholder – re: Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick 2005, in the post-World War II international architecture.
Trump has shown (to date) that he wants to focus on ‘American national interests’, without distractions. Despite suffering much unfair criticism from the bi-partisan foreign policy establishment, Trump, virtually alone among the 2016 contenders, stated that working with Russia is in US interests.
Trump, rather than the Washington elite, argue that confronting the only nation on the face of the planet that truly represents an existential threat to the U.S. — Russia, by virtue of its 2,000 plus deployed nuclear weapons, not to forget the massive state of the art military infrastructure — is unwise and dangerous and should be avoided except under the most extraordinary of circumstances.
This unconventional view fits perfectly with the first geopolitical imperative of the Iron Quadrilateral and could be leveraged to find ways to assure that Russia does not, during the future, become permanently estranged from the U.S.
Should Russia become altogether estranged from the US, it likely will become an energy vassal and arms dealer to China. Unfortunately, conventional foreign policy thinkers seem committed to aggressive policies, directly pushing Russia into China’s arms and tilting the geopolitical balance of power in Eurasia very decisively against the U.S. This is something the U.S. fought two world wars and the Cold War to prevent and would be the equivalent of America’s ultimate geopolitical nightmare – capitulation?
31 01 2017
Note and see ‘War Game : A Hypothetical Tactic in Dominance’ (C-IV) Room No. 15
PRC : The DF-41, a three-stage solid-propellant missile, with a range of up to 15,000 km and capable of delivering up to 10 MIRVed nuclear warheads, is one of the most sophisticated – and secret — ICBMS on earth. Virtually everything about it is classified. Positioning in Heilongjiang, near the city of Daqing, close to the Russian border, implies a huge dead zone around it. So call it a mix of nuclear deterrence and a”message to the ultimate target — the West Coast of the United States.
This propels the matter to an even more serious sphere than a possible upcoming crisis in the South China Sea, where the Pentagon, under the pretext of freedom of navigation, is obsessed in maintaining access, Trump or no Trump.
If there ever were an attempted American blockade in the South China Sea, it would be easy to take out the Chinese-developed islands/islets/rocks/shoals. But far from easy to grapple with the Chinese response; submarines with carrier killer missiles able to take out anything the US Navy may come up with.
WHAT OF THE NEW SILK ROAD?
The New Silk Road is part of China’s involvement in global governance and is expected to be a driving force for regional and global economic development – Wang Zhimin, an adviser at the Fengmian think-tank and director of the Institute for Globalization and Chinese Modernization.
The expert stressed that the initiative is especially important for the global community, taking into account the current uncertainty in the world economy.
Since the 2008 economic crisis, the global economy has been in decline. Growth in the United States and Europe was capped at two percent. Despite the downward trend, the Chinese economy managed to keep growing, including 6.7 percent last year. Donald Trump’s victory in the US election and his isolationist policy has added to global economic uncertainty.
Wang noted that taking into account China’s nearly 25 percent to the global economy many countries want to take advantage of the Chinese growing economy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly said that Beijing welcomes such cooperation. The Silk Road strategy is a result of China’s economic achievements and is the backbone for the global economy at a crisis time. During the three years since the Silk Road strategy was announced, China has been actively supported by more than 100 countries and international organizations. In particular, more than 40 countries and organizations have signed an agreement with China on cooperation.
The amount of investment by Chinese enterprises into the countries along the route has well exceeded $ 50 billion.
The One Belt One Road includes several transit corridors from western China to Europe, which can be divided into three groups – the Northern Route, Sea Route, and the Southern Route.
The Northern Route is considered the most promising among the others. It would go through Kazakhstan and Russia. The Sea Route would include transit routes via Kazakhstan as well as ports of the Caspian Sea for transit to Turkey. The Southern Route would bypass Russia via Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Pakistan with an access to the Indian Ocean. In addition to transforming the Eurasian logistics and infrastructure landscape, the project presumed China’s investments into neighboring economies involved.
Video : Prof. Noam Chomsky. MIT. ‘Changing Contours of the Global World Order’- for our Discussion * Note, the word discussion does not imply agreement
VIEWPOINT FOR SEMINAR
Energy, Resource Conflict, and the Emerging World Order
An interview with Michael T. Klare
by Barry S. Zellen
The Center for Contemporary Conflict. Naval Postgraduate School. Monterey. CA. USA
Note : The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of NPS, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
While terrorism, and the struggle to defeat it, has dominated much of the post-9/11 security debate, a new fault line underlying world politics has gained attention in recent years, one that could increasingly define future conflicts. This fault line is defined by natural resources: who has got them, who needs them, and who has the means to secure them. Indeed, resource conflict and its inescapable logic appears to explain many of the strategic moves made by the United States in recent years, and in particular its efforts to transform the political landscape of the Middle East, home to the world’s largest petroleum energy reserves.
Opponents of the U.S. military engagement in Iraq often utter the phrase, ‘No blood for oil,’ suggesting that energy resources, and not counter-terrorism, might lie at the root of America’s Iraq war policy. But it’s not just anti-war slogans that suggest the hidden hand of geopolitics underlying current conflict; indeed, many experts of international conflict see >> international competition for increasingly scarce natural and energy resources as a core, and increasingly salient, cause of conflict between and within states. <<
Michael T. Klare, the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College – one of the world’s leading experts on resource conflict.
Strategic Insights had the opportunity to interview Professor Klare, so to gain insight into >> the causal link between natural resources and international conflict, and to better understand this increasingly important fault line in world politics. <<
Qu : Has resource competition long fueled military conflicts, from ancient times to the contemporary period? How might a lens of natural resource competition help explain past conflicts, such as World War II and the Cold War, smaller regional wars, as well as the current war in Iraq?
Klare: Resource competition has been a decisive factor in driving conflict since the earliest recorded wars, in the ancient Near East. Then, as now, states fought for control over land that was suitable for agriculture—usually river valleys (the Tigris-Euphrates basin, the Jordan basin, the Nile basin, and so forth) or areas near springs and oases. Wars have also been fought over other valuable resources, including valuable minerals, timber, and spices.
The great colonial expansion by the European powers that began in the 15th century and continued until the early 19th century was largely driven by the pursuit of resources—land, timber, gold, minerals, spices, slaves, furs, rubber, and oil, among others—and this outward drive often sparked clashes with the indigenous inhabitants of these territories as well as among the imperial powers themselves. What we call the French and Indian War (the Europeans call it the Seven Years War), for instance, was sparked by conflict between Great Britain and France over the control of resource-rich territories in North America, India, Africa, and Asia. Many of the skirmishes that led up to World War I, especially those arising in Africa, also had this character. During the Cold War, resource-related conflict of this sort was largely subordinated to the ideological struggle between the two superpowers but did not disappear altogether. America’s presidents were perpetually worried about the emergence of radical nationalist regimes in the oil-producing areas of the Middle East, and this played a key role in shaping U.S. foreign policy during this period. These fears led, for example, the President Eisenhower’s decisions to cooperate with the British in the 1953 effort to topple the nationalist government of Mohammed Mossadeq in Iran and then to turn a deaf ear to British and French appeals for support during their ill-fated invasion of Egypt in 1956. The overthrow of the pro-U.S. Shah in 1979 and the rise of a radical Islamic regime in Iran also provided the backdrop to President Carter’s January 1980 declaration that the United States would use force if necessary to repel any effort by a hostile power to block the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf—a declaration widely known as the ‘Carter Doctrine.’ The basic tenets of the Carter Doctrine were cited by President Regan to justify U.S. intervention in the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88 (in the guise of protecting Kuwaiti oil tankers that had been ‘re-flagged’ with the American ensign), and then by President George H. W. Bush to justify U.S. intervention in the First Gulf War of 1990-91, after Iraqi forces had invaded and occupied Kuwait. Rather than invade Iraq at that time to eliminate the threat posed by Saddam Hussein to the safety of Persian Gulf oil supplies, Bush I chose to quarantine Iraq and seek “regime change” through economic warfare—a strategy then embraced by his successor, Bill Clinton. This strategy was seen by President George W. Bush and his advisors as ineffectual, and so, soon after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Bush II determined that the only way to eliminate the Iraqi threat once and for all was through armed invasion. Various reasons were given for this at the time, but I believe that future historians will conclude that in many respects the Second Gulf War was a continuation of the First, and that both hark back to the Carter Doctrine for their original inspiration.
Qu: Is resource competition playing a greater causal role in the outbreak of armed conflict now mthan in the past?
Klare: I would say that resource competition has played a key role in the outbreak of war throughout history, so it is hard to say if it is playing a greater role today than in the past. This having been said, I do think that we can anticipate an increase in the level of resource-related conflict in the future because there are no more ‘virgin continents’ waiting to be settled by the excess populations of over-crowded, resource-stressed areas. When Europe’s resources could no longer support its growing population, all sorts of incentives were provided to encourage people to resettle in North and South America, in Africa and Australia, and so on. These territories, in turn, produced surplus food and other resources that were shipped back to the motherland. Today, virtually the entire planet is inhabited, and there are very few arable areas left that are not under cultivation. As a result, we are seeing increasingly bitter conflicts over land in many parts of the world—in a way, the tragic struggle in Darfur is emblematic of this trend.
The same is true of many other resources. Virtually the entire planet has been scoured in the search for valuable sources of energy and minerals, and the rate of new discovery has dropped sharply in recent years. Moreover, most of the world’s known reserves of oil, natural gas, copper, uranium, and other vital materials have been brought into production or are likely to be so in the not-to-distant future. This means that we are becoming ever more dependent on a finite supply of critical materials at a time when the global demand for these resources—driven, in part, by the rise of China, India, and other newly-industrialized countries—is expected to soar. Under these circumstances, all of the conditions that might have prompted conflict over resources in the past are likely to become magnified.
Qu: In addition to petroleum resources, what are some of the other natural resources whose (potential) scarcity could (or already do) contribute to international conflict? Looking ahead to the end of this century, what are some of the resources that might cause future wars?
Klare: Well, in the energy field, natural gas is already a source of conflict. For example, China and Japan have squared off over the Chunxiao gas field in the East China Sea. This field extends into an area claimed by both countries, and both seek to extract its reserves in order to diminish their reliance on imported energy. Neither side has been willing to compromise on the matter, and both have threatened to rely on military means if necessary to protect their interests. In the fall of 2005, moreover, China stationed a squadron of naval vessels on its side of the disputed area while Japan began regular flights by maritime patrol aircraft on its side, leading to several close encounters between Chinese and Japanese forces—precisely the sort of behavior that could easily lead to unintended escalation in some future crises between the two countries. Disputes over the possession of offshore natural gas fields could also be a source of conflict between Iran and its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, and between the littoral states of the Caspian Sea. As more states come to rely on nuclear power for a greater share of their energy supply, uranium could also prove to be a source of international conflict. Like oil and natural gas, uranium (at least in its most concentrated form) is a relatively finite commodity and many of its most readily accessible deposits have already been depleted, so it is not unrealistic to assume that conflict could arise in the future over the remaining sources of high-quality uranium ore. Diamonds, minerals, and valuable timber supplies have also been a source of conflict in the past, and are likely to be so again in the future. Conflicts over these resources are unlikely to involve the major powers, but will more likely involve rentier states, warlords, ethnic militias, and assorted non-state actors. However, they often produce great humanitarian disasters, like the wars in Sierra Leone and the Congo, which in turn spark involvement by the major powers in a peacekeeping capacity.
Qu: Is the strategic competition between the United States and China over resources contributing to the perpetuation of armed conflicts around the world? Do you see a similarity between the current U.S.-China strategic relationship and the pre-WWII relationship between Japan and the United States? Might other ascendant powers (such as India) contribute to further resource competition and conflict?
Klare: Yes, the U.S.-China competition is contributing to the perpetuation of armed conflict in the world because both powers often seek to cement their ties with potential resource suppliers in the developing world by providing them with arms and other forms of military assistance, which often then find use in internal conflicts. Thus China, in pursuit of Sudanese oil, has cemented its ties with the northern government in Khartoum by supplying a wide range of arms, which reportedly have been used in the government’s “scorched earth” campaign against SPLA rebels in the South.
Likewise, the United States has assisted the Nigerian government in its crackdown against tribal militants in the Niger Delta region, the main center of Nigerian oil production. Both the United States and China are also providing arms and military aid to the various regimes in Central Asia, and this, too, I fear, will strengthen the tendency of these regimes to rely on force and repression to rule, rather than to allow greater democratic participation.
The situation in the Caspian Sea basin is particularly worrisome because the delivery of arms is being accompanied by the formation of incipient military alliances—the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on one hand, the U.S.-backed alliance of Azerbaijan and Georgia (united around protection of the BTC pipeline) on the other. While there is still a great deal of fluidity in the situation, I do see this as bearing some similarity to the situation in the Balkans prior to World War I.
Qu: With some experts noting evidence of accelerated global warming, how might this affect resource competition and international conflict?
Klare: Global warming will affect resource competition and conflict profoundly. Although global warming’s effects cannot be predicted with certainty, it is likely that it will produce diminished rainfall in many parts of the world, leading to a rise in desertification in these areas and a decline in their ability to sustain agriculture. This, in turn, could force people to fight over remaining sources of water and arable land, or to migrate in large numbers to other areas, where their presence may be resented by the existing inhabitants. Indeed, some analysts believe that the conflict in Darfur is partly driven by such phenomena.
Global warming is also expected to produce a significant rise global sea levels, and this will result in the inundation of low-lying coastal areas around the world. Again, the result will be the widespread loss of agricultural lands, forcing many millions of people to migrate to higher areas, possible encountering resistance in the process. Because many poor countries will be unable to cope with the catastrophic effects of global warming, state collapse is a likely result along with an accompanying epidemic of war-lordism, ethnic violence, and civil disorder.
Qu: Do you have any closing comments to share with us on the relationship between natural resources and international conflict? As well, please tell us about your current work.
Klare: What strikes me about all this that we are seeing the emergence of a new world power configuration in which the possession of energy and other key resources is the principal indicator of national strength, rather than the possession of military arsenals, as was the case in the Cold War era and in prior centuries. Russia, once the defeated has-been of the post-Cold War era, has acquired new prominence because of its abundance of oil, natural gas, coal, and uranium; the United States, the supposed victor of the Cold War, has been found to suffer from significant vulnerabilities because of its deep dependency on imported petroleum.
Secret Intelligence Service
RUSSIA : Guided missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy – Peter the Great
What about it……….
Russia’s nuclear-powered guided-missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy is being armed with hypersonic cruise missiles to be in service by 2022. ‘Ultra-secret’ Zircon missiles are passing final tests ahead of being considered to be introduced into the inventory.
Heavy cruiser Pyotr Velikiy will go into dry dock in the third quarter or in late 2019. General overhaul and ordnance alterations are planned to be completed by late 2022.
Source also confirms that a prototype of the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile is undergoing government flight development tests. Once the tests are confirmed successful, the missile is going to be presented for state approval.
The heavy cruiser is also going to be refitted with the brand-new multipurpose 3S-14 vertical launch systems.
Each of the 10 3S-14s in production right now has eight missile containers that can house three types of anti-ship missiles: Zircon, Onyx or Kalibr.
Altogether, the cruiser will be armed with 80 anti-ship missiles, > enough to engage any existing naval force globally. <
Modern Russian anti-ship missiles, like Onyx, have an operational speed of up to 2.6 Mach (750 m/s or 2,700 km/h). The sea-based Kalibr cruise missile travels at a mere 0.9 M speed, yet when approaching the target its warhead speeds up to 2.9 M.
No technical information is available regarding the upcoming hypersonic cruise missile, reportedly being developed in at least two, airborne and seaborne, options. Its top speed is assumed to be at least 5-6 Mach, yet possibly could reach over 10 Mach maximums.
The nuclear-powered guided-missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy is arguably the world’s largest non-air-capable military vessel. Its inventory includes several hundred missiles, including anti-ship cruise missiles with nuclear warheads and various types of air-defence missiles, torpedoes, anti-submarine armament, artillery, etc.
In another project, 11442, the nuclear-powered guided-missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov had been undergoing a general overhaul (since late 2014) and will be totally refurbished and rearmed with brand-new missile systems ahead of Pyotr Velikiy going into dry dock.
Secret Intelligence Service
Russia. Pyotr Velikiy – Peter the Great
What about it.
ARMED FORCES OF THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY
Secret Intelligence Service. (C-IV)
Approximate structure of the PLA – The ground forces of the PLA are organised in seven military districts : Beijing, Shenyang, Lanzhou, Jinan, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Chengdu Folk – with the functions of commands in theatre. The composition of these districts include provincial military districts. The troops of the Beijing Military Region, intended for the defence of the capital and Inner Mongolia. On its territory there are military structure of the province of Hebei and Shanxi, as well as, a division of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Separate military-administrative units are the cities of Beijing and Tianjin. In the district include the 27th, 38th and 65th Armies. Commander of the district – 张仕波 (zhāng shì bō), Commissioner – 刘福 连 (liú fú lián). Army 27: 188, 235 mechanised brigades; 80, 82 Infantry Brigade; 7 Tank Brigade; 16 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. Army 38: 6 Armoured Division; 112, 113 mechanised divisions; 6 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade; brigade of special purpose; 8 Army Aviation Regiment. 65 Army: 193 Mechanised Division, 195 Mechanised Brigade; 70, 196 Infantry Brigade; 1 Tank Brigade; 14 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. Shenyang Military District, for defence north-eastern borders of China. On its territory there are military structure of the province of Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin, as well as some units Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. In the district include the 16th, 39th and 40th Army. Commander of the district – 王 教成 (wáng jiào chéng), Commissioner – 褚益民 (chǔ yì mín). Army 16: 49 and 69 Infantry Division; 48, 67, 68 mechanised brigades; 4 Tank Brigade; 10 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. 39 Army: 116 Mechanised Division, 190 and 202 mechanised brigades; 115 motorised infantry brigade; 3 Tank Brigade; 7 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade; Special Purpose Regiment; 9 Regiment Army Aviation. Army 40: 118, 119, 191 Infantry Brigade; 5 Tank Brigade; 11 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. Jinan Military District, serves as a strategic reserve. On its territory there are military structure of the province of Shandong and Henan. In the district includes 20 th, 26 th and 54 th Army. Commander of the district – 赵宗岐 (zhào zōng qí), Commissioner – 杜 恒 岩 (dù héng yán). Army 20: 58, 60 mechanised brigades; 13 Tank Brigade; 2 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. 26 Army: 200 Mechanised Brigade; 77, 138, 199 motorised brigades; 8 Tank Brigade; 8 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade; Special Purpose Regiment; 7 Regiment Army Aviation. Army 54: 127, 162 mechanised divisions; 160 Mechanised Brigade; 11 Tank Brigade; Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade; 1 regiment of army aviation. Lanzhou Military Region is focused on Mongolian, Central Asian and Pakistani direction. On its territory there are military structure of the province of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, as well as the Xinjiang provincial military district. The structure of the military district includes 21th, 47th Army, as well as SPVO. Commander of the district – 刘 粤军 (liú yuè jūn), Commissioner – 苗 华 (miáo huá). Army 21: 61 motorised division; 62 Mechanised Brigade; 12 Tank Brigade; Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade; 184 brigade of special purpose. 47 Army: 139 Mechanised Brigade; 55, 56 Infantry Brigade; 9 Tank Brigade; 15 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. Xinjiang Provincial Military District 6 Mechanised Division; 4, 6, 11 Infantry Division; 2 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade; 3 Brigade Army Aviation; 1 independent regiment. Nanjing Military District, oriented to the east and south-east direction. On its territory there are military structure of the province of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian and Jiangxi. Separate military-administrative entity is Shanghai. In the district includes the 1st, 12th and 31th Army. Commander of the district – 蔡 英挺 (cài yīng tǐng), Commissioner – 郑卫平 (zhèng wèi píng). Army 1: 1 amphibious mechanised division; 178 Mechanised Brigade; 3 Motorised Brigade; 10 Tank Brigade; 9 artillery division; air defence brigade; 5 Army Aviation Brigade; EW team. Army 12: 34, 35 mechanised brigades; 36, 179 motorised brigades; 2 Tank Brigade; Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. Army 31: 86, 91 motorised divisions; 92 motorised brigade; 14 Tank Brigade; 3 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade; brigade of special purpose; Army Aviation Regiment 10. Guangzhou Military District, is focused on the southern direction and defence of the Vietnamese-Chinese border. On its territory there are military structure of the province of Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan. In addition, subject to the command of the garrison in Hong Kong. In the district consists of 41 th and 42 th Army, as well as Hainan Provincial Military District. Commander of the district – 徐 粉 林 (xú fěn lín), Commissioner – 魏 亮 (wéi liàng). 41 Army: 123 Mechanised Division; 121 Motorised Division; 15 Tank Brigade; Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. 42 Army: 124 amphibious mechanised division; 163 motorised infantry division; 16 Tank Brigade; 1 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade; brigade of special purpose; 6 Brigade Army Aviation. Hainan Provincial Military District: 132 motorised brigade. Hong Kong Garrison: Infantry Brigade, Center Transport Management and Supply, the PLA Air Force helicopter unit; group of the Chinese Navy, as well as control center transport and logistics, and infantry units in Macau. Chendusky Military District protects the southern and south-westerly direction and defending the border with Vietnam, Laos, Burma, Nepal and India. Located within the county structure of military areas of Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, as well as the military forces of the Tibetan provincial district. Separate military-administrative entity is the city of Chongqing. In the district includes the 13th and 14th Army, as well as Tibetan provincial military district. Commander of the district – 李作成 (lǐ zuò chéng), Commissioner – 朱福熙 (zhū fú xī). Army 13: 37, 149 motorised divisions; 17 Tank Brigade; Artillery Brigade; air defense brigade; brigade of special purpose; 2 Army Aviation Brigade. Army 14: 31, 40 Infantry Division; 18 Tank Brigade; 4 Artillery Brigade; air defence brigade. Tibetan provincial military district: 52, 53 Mountain Infantry Brigade; 54 Mechanised Brigade; 308 Artillery Regiment; anti-aircraft artillery regiment. Included here is a detailed block diagram of the armed forces of the People’s Liberation Army. China.
Secret Intelligence Service. (C-IV)
Secret Intelligence Service
Seminar Notes. 17 10 2018. Harrogate
The notion of ‘swarming’ before the advent of nano-tech weapons /bioweapons. Why swarming becomes a perfect vehicle for nano-tech bioweapons.
So what is swarming?
Swarming is seemingly unstructured, but in actuality, swarming is a deliberately structured, coordinated, strategic way to strike from all directions, by means of a sustainable pulsing of force and/or fire, close-in as well as from stand-off positions. It will work best—perhaps it will only work—if it is designed mainly around the deployment of myriad, small, dispersed, networked maneuver units (organized in clusters). Developing a swarming force implies, among other things, radical changes in organisational structures. From command and control of line units to logistics, profound shifts will have to occur to nurture this new way of war.
Examples of swarming can be found throughout history, but it is only now able to emerge as a doctrine in its own right. That is largely because swarming depends on a devolution of power to small units and a capacity to interconnect those units that have only recently become feasible, due to the information revolution.
Swarming—engaging an adversary from all directions simultaneously, either with fire or in force—is one of four types of doctrine that have long been around. The other forms are the chaotic melee, brute-force massing, and nimble maneuver. Each form has had a different information requirement—melees requiring the least, maneuvers needing more than massing, and swarming depending completely on robust, rapid communications. While all the forms have been around throughout history, melees and massing appear to have been dominant at the tactical level primarily in pre-industrial times. Such paragons of maneuver as Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan are overshadowed by a long procession of mass-oriented militaries—a point borne out by the brief eminence of the empires they created. Over the past two centuries, however, mass and maneuver have followed a much more interactive pattern, featuring the dominance of the former, at times (e.g., as in World War I)—but also of the latter (e.g., in World War II).
One can posit the certainty that the rise and pace of advanced information operations, nano-tech bioweapons and so on, will bring swarming to the fore, thus establishing a new pattern in conflict.
Well, societies have already had a great deal of exposure to and practical experience of swarming. Ourselves, for example, we pioneered a kind of swarming in the naval doctrine they followed in our fight against the Spanish Armada during 1588—in this case a swarming of fire that relentlessly harried the invasion fleet and hastened it toward its destruction. Later on, in the 18th century, the British Army had to deal with the swarming fire of American rebels. However, another century later, in the Zulu War of 1879, the British Army would defeat a sophisticated swarming-in-force doctrine—after but one early reverse. Then, during World War II, we would use defensive swarming in force to win the Battle of Britain and defeat the swarming U-boat wolfpack doctrine in a protracted Battle of the Atlantic. Information operations played crucial roles in the outcomes of both campaigns.
The historical insight that information flows (or their disruption) provide a key, both to understanding and practicing swarming, may encourage all leaders to view information operations as a central element in the development of future military doctrine.
One requirement—well-informed, deadly small units—is already coming into being alongside the continued popularity and apparent utility of the current Air Land Battle doctrine.
Swarming, and the nonlinear battle space that it envisions, would in effect, require the development of a new logistical paradigm. The current is centuries old and, although it has often worked well, it is mass-oriented—and thus unsuited to swarming operations.
Regarding Information Operations.
Theorists and practitioners around the world, allies as well as adversaries, are well into a third decade of utilising the information age and reshaping the nature of conflict. In the middle of the conflict spectrum where military affairs fade into police matters, new generations of terrorists and criminals, both at home and abroad, are also pursuing innovations as a result of the information revolution. They are organising into loose, trans-national networks that allow for increased coordination and cooperation among dispersed groups and individuals who are able to stay securely separated in case any one is caught and incriminated. For example, some leaders subscribe to a doctrine of ‘leaderless resistance’ that can motivate ‘lone wolves’ to commit violent acts entirely on their own account.
Furthermore, all across the conflict spectrum, computer hackers are on the move, with their stealthy, disruptive techniques. There is a steady stream of cases, spanning the conflict spectrum, that are indicating how people may prefer to fight as the information age deepens. Each case has its own unique features, and a somewhat different mixture of pre- and post-modern characteristics. But collectively they speak to the growing power of small units, groups, and individuals who are able to connect and act conjointly by adopting network forms of organisation and related doctrines and strategies and technologies. More than that, these cases speak to the rise of swarming as a mode of conflict.
The history of military warfare, it has counterparts in the history of social movements as well.
The melee, a chaotic, undirected clash of arms at close quarters and the least demanding in terms of organization and information.
Massing probably began to emerge somewhere in our distant past, as it was noticed that, by remaining nearby one’s fellows, advantages were to be had. One might derive some protection, therefore, from being in a mass, as well as improve the overall striking power of the army. As massed formations took deliberate shape, battle became more of a bloody shoving match; but at least it featured somewhat cohesive sides. These early ways of war had to wait advances in both organisation and information flows before maneuver could emerge. But with the redesign of a generic armed force into several smaller units, each commanded by a field grade leader, the possibility of more complex operations arose. Some of the force could defend while the rest attacked, for example, enabling the rise of the essence of maneuver, which has always aimed at striking one small part of an enemy force with a larger mass of one’s own, crushing it in detail.
The emergence of writing and literacy facilitated the rise of elaborate mass and maneuver operations. Writing made possible the conveyance of orders, both before and during battle, and made sense of the notion of creating many smaller units of maneuver beyond the immediate command of the leader. Later, along with mechanisation, the spread of the telegraph and the radio fostered the development of more advanced maneuver doctrines.
To these three traditional approaches to battle, we add a fourth; swarming. By this I mean the systematic pulsing of force and/or fire by dispersed, units, so as to strike the adversary from all directions simultaneously. This does not necessitate surrounding the enemy, though swarming may include encirclement in some cases. Rather, emphasis is placed on forces or fires that can strike at will—wherever they will.
Historically, there have been a few instances of this approach to battle. For example, swarming can be glimpsed in some ancient mounted armies (e.g., Parthians, Scythians, even the imperial Byzantine cavalry) that gave fits to phalanxes, legions, and other conventional military formations. Better examples appear in the Mongol approach to war, in Mao Zedong’s concept of Peoples War, and in the Battle of Britain. But swarming could not come into its own as a major way of war, because its organizational and informational requirements are huge.
Swarming has had to wait for the current information and communications revolution to unfold as robustly as did the earlier forms of fighting.
Each of the four forms incorporates and builds upon what came before. Aspects of the melee remain in present-day close-in, hand-to-hand combat. And the role of mass lives on in more sophisticated, maneuver-oriented forms of battle (e.g., AirLand Battle); but it is much transformed. Massing is still a crucial element in maneuver—but it is massing at the decisive point, that counts most of all. Similarly, the melee will likely still have a role with the advent of swarming—but this nonlinear, very often close-in approach to fighting will be organised rather than chaotic. The information structuring (the embedding of all manner of information in the new military organisational forms) and processing done to prepare for and then to conduct battles will allow for controllable swarm tactics to emerge that may make an adversary think he is being overwhelmed in melee. But there will be far more structure to the attack than he may be able to discern. At least this is the ideal of the swarming concept an ideal heavily reliant upon robust information flows and the development of junior-level officers who can think in high-level ways. Needless to say, these challenges for communications and command are substantial; and they suggest that a swarming force, when it fights close in, may often skitter along on the chaotic edge of an uncontrolled melee.
Since the newest approach to war may contain within it the oldest, theorists and practitioners should remain alert to the persistence of all four forms. Mass and maneuver have not gone away and may persist even in a conflict spectrum that may one day be dominated by swarming.
This is a central theme of Thomas Carlyle (1837) study of the French Revolution. Early common era (9–18 A.D.). Led by Arminius, the Germans took good advantage of their heavily forested terrain to force the Romans into breaking their legionary formations, which resulted in fighting that consisted of a wild, extended series of small hand to hand combats. The Romans suffered a terrible loss at the outset of this struggle, in the Teutoberg Forest. But even after they rebounded, under the skillful Germanicus, winning at Idistaviso, the ferocity of the Germans convinced the Empire to expand no further than the Rhine and the Danube. After the fall of Rome in the fifth century, the next thousand years of European land warfare would be characterised generally by melees. Only the rise of the longbow would be able to break the spell of this form of warfare.
In progress, please stay with us
CONTINUATION AND INTEGRATION
Adversitate. Custodi. Per Verum
The Queen’s Speech 2016
Delivering security for working people
Increasing life chances for the most disadvantaged
Strengthening our national security – Counter-Extremism Bill
With requirement for maximum relevance, all the material and conclusions voiced herein are in terms of appeal to national security. Appeals which are, and in regard to : UK national defence and our territorial integrity. Regarding other threats to peace, order and parliamentary procedure in the UK, including managing violence and civil disturbance. Regarding threats from foreign influenced activities which are detrimental to UK interests and which undermine the legitimacy of democratic UK institutions. Threats by virtue of terrorist activities perpetrated against the UK; the citizens of the UK, and UK interests. Threats regarding the proliferation of WMD and their use against the UK, its citizens and its interests. Regarding espionage and subversion in the UK and the UK’s ability to protect its interests. Regarding threats derived from economic competitiveness.