Crown copyright (c) 2015
Regarding Sir John Sawers, ‘Speech to War Studies students at King’s College, London’. 02/2015
The former head of the Secret Intelligence Service MI6, has quite rightly advised against intensifying political and military pressure on the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, claiming any potential change of power in Moscow, indeed if it was even a possibility, “may well be for the worse.”
While giving a speech to War Studies students attending at King’s College London, Sir John said the actions currently being taken by Western governments with regard to the crisis in Ukraine might provoke President Putin, and lead to a far deeper, potentially complete disaster in the region.
Sir John, who recently retired from the post of the UK’s chief spymaster, said that President Putin wanted to use Russia’s nuclear capability as a projection of raw strength. He also said that while the country may be asserting itself, the West must “deal with the Russia we have. Not the Russia we’d like to have.”
“The Ukraine crisis is no longer just about Ukraine. It’s now a much bigger, very much more dangerous crisis, between the Russian Federation and countries of the West, with regard to perceived values and order in Europe,” he said.
Raising an admonitory note, “The West” he said. “Could take on Moscow, stepping up our response, provide weapons to Ukraine so it can defend itself, more stringent sanctions. But the important point is; how would President Putin respond?”
He described the reaction as a game of one-upmanship, not dissimilar to Cold War tensions.
“As long as President Putin views the issue in terms of Russia’s own security he will be prepared to go further than us. So he would respond with further escalation on the ground. Perhaps cyber-attacks against us. We have thousands of deaths in Ukraine. We could start to get tens of thousands, literally hundreds of thousands. Then what?”
He praised German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s diplomatic approach to peace negotiations, saying that she deserved the full support of the West. “Once we have calm – if we have calm – we’ll need a new approach to co-existence with President Putin’s Russia,” he added.
He warned that engaging in attempts to push President Putin out of power could lead to worse international relations in the future. At present the President’s popularity rating is close to ninety percent, which is higher than that of Obama and Cameron added together, the latter certain to lose on the upcoming general election.
“The convergence between Russia and the West which we had hoped for after the Cold War won’t happen while he is in charge. We now know that. Any foreseeable change of power in Russia may well be for the worse. Managing relations with Russia will be the defining problem in European security for years to come.”
Is this not what diplomacy is about?
His comments come as pressure is applied to Chancellor George Osborne and Prime Minister David Cameron to commit to the NATO target of spending two percent of GDP on military budgets.
On Monday, two former NATO chiefs warned that a failure to meet the target would send a poor message to European allies, and encourage international aggressors.
They would see it this way because it’s the only way they see things.
“It would send, not least under current circumstances, a very, very bad signal to Russia, to terrorists, to others – an indication of what I would call retrenchment and retreat.”
“It is quite the opposite of what we need right now. We need free societies, the liberal democracies, to step up to the plate and demonstrate a clear economic commitment to defense and security,” former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
From the Unit (C-I)
It is interesting to consider what is being argued and informed regarding Russia and while the People’s Republic of China are not included in the info war to anything like the same extent, if at all and if truth be known, whose tactics directed toward us (and which are no secret whatsoever), can be seen to reside in the realms and height of metaphysics. Unit. (CI)
The notion of co-existence and the creating and maintaining of this state is very obviously multifaceted and massively complex. What it cannot ever reflect and indeed, only reflect, are the psychological contracts that certain few own with regard to the reality of the world, in its entirety the complex interplay of human activity systems. A perceived reality which contains super-power conflict is indicative of insanity of the farthest extreme of the falibility argument and moves far beyond security of the world’s population, rather, does guarantee its annihilation. There are no games of one-upmanship applicable to weapons of mass destruction, they know nothing of such and thwart all and every conceivable position in this respect. It is not weakness therefore to suggest a shift to a calmer status and an exploitation of resources via different perceptions of the nature of the world. Those who are advocating moves that are intended to lead to military engagement – this is what they envisage whether they admit to it or attire their arguments differently by pointing toward supposed ‘justifications’ – are mad men, we do not need them because we won’t survive the end result that they, in their psychotic delusion, insist. Unit (C-I)
Secret Intelligence Service
Ракетные войска стратегического назначения Российской Федерации полностью развернута первая ярс полк, состоящий из трех батальонов в августе 2011 года, и поставить два батальона второго полка на боевое дежурство 27 декабря 2011 года развертывание третьего батальона второго полка завершено перевооружение дивизии Тейково с системами ярс. Два полка состоит из в общей сложности 18 ракетных систем и некоторых командных должностях мобильных. Еще два ракетных дивизий начали получать системы ярс в 2013 году Update, см текст.
39 гвардейской Rocket, в Новосибирске в Сибири, получили мобильную систему ярс, в то время как 28 гвардейской Rocket в Козельске (в средней полосе России) был вооружен шахтного базирования версии системы. В Ракетные войска стратегического назначения – Тополь-М и РС-24 баллистические ракеты основой наземного компонента ядерной триады и составлять не менее 80% от арсенала РВСН к 2016 году Update, см текст.
Три ракетных полков Ракетных войск стратегического назначения России были перевооружены систем ярс на 2014. Update, см текст
The Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Federation fully deployed the first regiment of the regiment, consisting of three battalions in August 2011, and put the two battalions of the second regiment on alert. On December 27, 2011, the deployment of the third battalion of the second regiment completed the re-equipment of the Teikovo division with yars systems. The two regiments consist of a total of 18 missile systems and some commanding mobile posts. Two more missile divisions began to receive the yars system in 2013 Update, see text.
39 Guards Rocket, in Novosibirsk in Siberia, received a mobile yars system, while the 28 Guards Rocket in Kozelsk (in the middle zone of Russia) was armed with a mine-based version of the system. In the Strategic Missile Forces – Topol-M and RS-24 ballistic missiles, the basis of the ground component of the nuclear triad and make up at least 80% of the Strategic Missile Force’s arsenal by 2016 Update, see text.
Three missile regiments of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia have been rearmed with the YAMS systems for 2014. Update, see text
(C-I) (C-III) Mind map Secret Intelligence Service
stability > false impressions > human behavior is questionable in its potential > rampage carried along uncaring and the end result? > naivety > think movies are reality > think war is heroic > exist within human constructions > really don’t know anything > USA and RUSSIA > agenda > expansion of NATO > to Russian border? > dismantle the Russian Federation? > 35 states, has great cultural diversity, history > Ukraine > the scooping up of countries not in NATO on Russian border? > ‘red line’ > nonsense media, especially in the UK > ridiculous prevarications > the issue is world security > the continuum is escalating in the Ukraine > Kiev demonstrable asymptomatic of lunacy > US troops in Ukraine? > vice-versa > fundamental case > accusation : determination by US to maintain full spectrum dominance >exaggeration to what degree and nature thereof? to become international system? > but is this really the case with countries such as Russia and China in the world> very obvious obstacles? > vast economic and military potential? >strategy : the world? > stuff of story books > Regime changes > Putin defending national interests – stated categorically > multi-polar world is the reality > announced that US troops to the Ukraine > “training” > providing arms to Kiev > DANGER > Russia not sit still > intervene > not to date, but future is not the past > US agenda to create a fight with Russia? > insanity > any other way to see this? > what? > question : might the US be determined to structure reality and not to accommodate it? >why is the question asked? > answer complex or simple? > based on what geopolitical examples? > US arms for the Ukraine > ‘lethal’ arms > women and children killed en-masse > very big mistake > distance oneself from the reality of others dying > proxy war > Russia immense capability in that region > potential for millions killed in exchanges > unequivocal > election cycles > UK and USA > Trident upgrade $350 billion in austerity era > UK Cameron/Tory defeat certain > oligarchy > working class and wealthy far apart > US cost of nuclear upgrade in realms of cosmology > stagnating poor at grass roots > debt enslavement via oligarchs > create idea of power in minds of powerless by Russia bating, plus propaganda machine in operation? > if Kiev prevails, a strategic victory for who exactly? DANGER. DANGER > Russia sucked in to a war > goal for NATO? > NATO Commanders? > out of sync with reality > idea could survive a war > prove a point > what point? > Russian nuclear capability brought into play immediately > calculations of NATO > negative outcome for the Ukraine > negative outcome globally > conflicts ALWAYS escalate > China – PLA > Neocons > Russia past countering of FSD > counterbalancing over past decade > BRICS > doing well > not fall into unipolar model perceived> is it perceived? by who precisely? > Transatlantic Free Trade Partnership > currency wars? > rules of game – international system > econ/military currency > USA/Europe > control > China 8% growth > Russia 5% decline > true? >economics tied up with balances of power > obvious > how to avoid conflict ? > Minsk agreements > the Ukraine be a non-bloc country? > US moving forward on Ukraine? > Europe/USA together > go with ‘’’program’’’ > who calling shots? US? > sense prevail???? > not so? some state> > what does sense mean? > feeling of great pessimism globally > Russia enemy whatever??? > miscalculations > Russia > not only Putin > many Russians of same mind, fanatical support across all spectrum of endeavor, especially military > 90% popularity > Shoigu > tactician > strategic missile forces > not looking good > global war agenda? Kiev to pursue conflict??? > what strategy? paradigm shift > how ? war? > notion of combat ground troops engaged in prospective WWIII scenario > ridiculous > concepts born in madness > how to reverse current trend?> create future? > irreversible > red line > statement by Lloyd George, no one wanted to listen > after cessation of hostilities First World War > million British dead > ‘maybe we could have done things differently?’ > war of attrition > not so WWIII > no one could survive > no defense whatsoever against the weapons
Secret Intelligence Service
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